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Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DARCI JOY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/2, with TURQUOISE ALPHA second and PERFECT TO GREAT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.6 favourite PERFETTO finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.34.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 1 5.4 2-1/2
2 6 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 2 25.0 2-1/2
3 8 PERFECT TO GREAT Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 6 17.0 2-3/4
4 1 DRAGON DELIGHT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 7 17.0 3
5 2 PERFETTO Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 8 1.6 3-1/4
6 12 BULB PRINCE H/TT V Borges · C H Yip 5 20.0 3-1/4
7 10 CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly SR/TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte 10 172.0 4-3/4
8 4 SPARKY STAR Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 4 38.0 5
9 13 STAR OF GLORY Led early B C Wong · C W Chang 11 72.0 5-1/4
10 14 SO YOU TRUST TT H Bentley · J Size 3 142.0 5-1/4
11 3 OSCAR GLORY B M F Poon · F C Lor 12 87.0 6-3/4
12 11 GENERAL WINNER L Currie · W Y So 9 53.0 8-1/2
13 7 INDIGENOUS REALM TT S De Sousa · K L Man 13 11.0 10-3/4
14 9 EZRA B L Ferraris · A T Millard 14 23.0 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DARCI JOY2. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.5L3. PERFECT TO GREAT+2.75L4. DRAGON DELIGHT+3L5. PERFETTO+3.25L6. BULB PRINCE+3.25L7. CLASSIC ARCHI+4.75L8. SPARKY STAR+5L9. STAR OF GLORY+5.25L10. SO YOU TRUST+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PERFETTO (30.0%) finished 5th — the winner DARCI JOY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PERFETTO 30.0% 3.33 5
2 5 DARCI JOY 15.2% 6.60 1
3 8 PERFECT TO GREAT 8.9% 11.22 3
4 7 INDIGENOUS REALM 8.8% 11.31 13
5 4 SPARKY STAR 5.6% 17.81 8
6 1 DRAGON DELIGHT 5.6% 17.83 4
7 12 BULB PRINCE 4.8% 21.02 6
8 9 EZRA 4.5% 22.42 14
9 3 OSCAR GLORY 4.1% 24.32 11
10 13 STAR OF GLORY 3.8% 26.42 9
11 6 TURQUOISE ALPHA 3.2% 31.32 2
12 11 GENERAL WINNER 2.8% 36.22 12
13 14 SO YOU TRUST 1.8% 57.12 10
14 10 CLASSIC ARCHI 1.0% 97.93 7
PERFETTODARCI JOY — wonPERFECT TO GREATINDIGENOUS REALMSPARKY STARDRAGON DELIGHTBULB PRINCEEZRAOSCAR GLORYSTAR OF GLORYTURQUOISE ALPHAGENERAL WINNERSO YOU TRUSTCLASSIC ARCHI

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 54.5

PLACE

5 17.5

6 44

8 41

QUINELLA

5,6 561.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 123.5

5,8 121

6,8 377

FORECAST

5,6 1,118

TIERCE

5,6,8 10,467

TRIO

5,6,8 2,673

FIRST 4

1,5,6,8 8,131

QUARTET

5,6,8,1 151,220

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 12.5

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,9/5,6,8 137,241

5TH DOUBLE

9/5 234

9/6 252

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,10,11/1,4,9/Any Combination 4,235