Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 13:32

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EXCELLENT FIGHTER, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/2, with GALVANIC second and CLASSIC MOON third. The 4.1 favourite GOLDEN LUCK finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 EXCELLENT FIGHTER TT 1.09.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu 10 4.7 2-1/2
2 6 GALVANIC XB-/CP/TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards 12 5.4 2-1/2
3 1 CLASSIC MOON CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 24.0 4
4 14 RED TITAN TT L Currie · J Size 8 9.5 4-1/4
5 9 GOLDEN LUCK XB1/TT1 M F Poon · K L Man 3 4.1 5
6 10 PLENTIFUL H1/XB1 A Hamelin · P C Ng 1 44.0 5
7 12 M UNICORN H/P1/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 14 75.0 6
8 4 FUN TOGETHER TT C L Chau · T P Yung 13 21.0 6
9 5 STAR ASCENSION TT H Bowman · D J Hall 5 4.1 6
10 8 CURLING SPEED B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 111.0 6-3/4
11 13 GOAL ORIENTED SR/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 6 103.0 7-1/4
12 11 SPEEDY CHARIOT K Teetan · D J Whyte 11 14.0 7-3/4
13 2 JAZZ CLUB B R Maia · K W Lui 9 87.0 7-3/4
7 CALL ME MIGHTY H N Wong · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EXCELLENT FIGHTER2. GALVANIC+2.5L3. CLASSIC MOON+4L4. RED TITAN+4.25L5. GOLDEN LUCK+5L6. PLENTIFUL+5L7. M UNICORN+6L8. FUN TOGETHER+6L9. STAR ASCENSION+6L10. CURLING SPEED+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GALVANIC (21.1%) finished 2nd — the winner EXCELLENT FIGHTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 GALVANIC 21.1% 4.73 2
2 3 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 17.3% 5.78 1
3 5 STAR ASCENSION 16.8% 5.97 9
4 11 SPEEDY CHARIOT 9.1% 10.95 12
5 4 FUN TOGETHER 9.0% 11.14 8
6 14 RED TITAN 5.0% 20.02 4
7 12 M UNICORN 4.0% 24.88 7
8 9 GOLDEN LUCK 4.0% 25.29 5
9 1 CLASSIC MOON 3.9% 25.40 3
10 10 PLENTIFUL 3.9% 25.86 6
11 2 JAZZ CLUB 3.1% 32.21 13
12 8 CURLING SPEED 1.5% 68.08 10
13 13 GOAL ORIENTED 1.4% 72.80 11
GALVANICEXCELLENT FIGHTER — wonSTAR ASCENSIONSPEEDY CHARIOTFUN TOGETHERRED TITANM UNICORNGOLDEN LUCKCLASSIC MOONPLENTIFULJAZZ CLUBCURLING SPEEDGOAL ORIENTED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 47

PLACE

1 61.5

3 19

6 18

QUINELLA

3,6 144.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 203

1,6 161

3,6 55

FORECAST

3,6 286

TIERCE

3,6,1 4,206

TRIO

1,3,6 743

FIRST 4

1,3,6,14 1,908

QUARTET

3,6,1,14 35,073

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/3 617

6/6 97.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,13/1,3,6 10,081

3 PICK 1

A2 18

A3

A1