Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 14:31
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. COLONEL, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with APEX TOP second and INSPIRING CITY third. The 5.8 favourite ALLOY STAR finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | COLONEL V 1.09.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 13 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | APEX TOP B H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 7 | 6.1 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | INSPIRING CITY M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | 1 | 7.2 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HAPPY FOREVER V/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 11 | 8.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 14 | ALLOY STAR B K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 4 | 5.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | THIS IS GUTS CP-/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 3 | 26.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | GOLDEN MISSION B/TT M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 5 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | TOUCH FAITH L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 6 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | VIVA A LA H/P/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 9 | 17.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | ZACIAN C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 2 | 6.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT L Ferraris · W Y So | L Ferraris | W Y So | 10 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | COMPULSORY B/TT L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 12 | 30.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | SHANGHAI POWER B M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 8 | 64.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 14 | 3 | DREAM CATCHER B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 14 | 141.0 | 15 |
| — | 0 | LITTLE PLAYER S De Sousa · J Richards | S De Sousa | J Richards | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | ZACIAN | 12.6% | 7.97 | 10 |
| 2 | 8 | TOUCH FAITH | 11.1% | 9.02 | 8 |
| 3 | 11 | COLONEL | 9.8% | 10.22 | 1 |
| 4 | 14 | ALLOY STAR | 8.7% | 11.46 | 5 |
| 5 | 6 | GOLDEN MISSION | 8.4% | 11.86 | 7 |
| 6 | 10 | APEX TOP | 7.2% | 13.84 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | COMPULSORY | 6.8% | 14.77 | 12 |
| 8 | 9 | VIVA A LA | 6.7% | 15.03 | 9 |
| 9 | 1 | HAPPY FOREVER | 6.6% | 15.22 | 4 |
| 10 | 12 | THIS IS GUTS | 6.4% | 15.74 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 6.2% | 16.21 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | INSPIRING CITY | 4.7% | 21.08 | 3 |
| 13 | 7 | SHANGHAI POWER | 3.3% | 29.95 | 13 |
| 14 | 3 | DREAM CATCHER | 1.6% | 62.80 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
11 115
PLACE
2 30
10 24.5
11 43
QUINELLA
10,11 414
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 104
2,11 204.5
10,11 143.5
FORECAST
11,10 1,196
TIERCE
11,10,2 9,447
TRIO
2,10,11 1,309
FIRST 4
1,2,10,11 2,795
QUARTET
11,10,2,1 80,330
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/2,10,11 53,068
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 19
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/10 184
2/11 1,349