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Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 15:04

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. THE MULTIPLIER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by 3/4, with CALIFORNIA CONCORD second and SHINING FORTUNE third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 THE MULTIPLIER B/TT 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 3.6 3/4
2 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 1 14.0 3/4
3 4 SHINING FORTUNE PC/XB K Teetan · J Size 8 3.7 2-1/2
4 5 YELLOWFIN TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 4.5 3-1/4
5 11 LUCKY RUBY B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 4 5.9 3-1/2
6 12 VALHALLA B/XB/TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 6 27.0 4
7 8 SURE JOYFUL V K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 20.0 4-1/2
8 2 GLUCK RACER V H Bentley · L Ho 7 38.0 5
9 6 DRAGON STAR XB/B1 A Hamelin · P C Ng 10 102.0 9
10 10 GREAT FOR YOU CP1 C L Chau · Y S Tsui 9 22.0 11-3/4
11 3 MILLENNIUM FALCON H C Wong · T P Yung 12 114.0 14-3/4
12 7 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 11 31.0 66-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE MULTIPLIER2. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+0.75L3. SHINING FORTUNE+2.5L4. YELLOWFIN+3.25L5. LUCKY RUBY+3.5L6. VALHALLA+4L7. SURE JOYFUL+4.5L8. GLUCK RACER+5L9. DRAGON STAR+9L10. GREAT FOR YOU+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YELLOWFIN (26.5%) finished 4th — the winner THE MULTIPLIER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 YELLOWFIN 26.5% 3.77 4
2 8 SURE JOYFUL 19.0% 5.27 7
3 9 THE MULTIPLIER 13.4% 7.44 1
4 4 SHINING FORTUNE 9.9% 10.13 3
5 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 8.9% 11.27 2
6 11 LUCKY RUBY 5.2% 19.07 5
7 2 GLUCK RACER 4.7% 21.13 8
8 3 MILLENNIUM FALCON 4.5% 22.43 11
9 12 VALHALLA 4.0% 24.76 6
10 7 GEM OF SOUTH CHINA 1.8% 56.84 12
11 6 DRAGON STAR 1.1% 93.77 9
12 10 GREAT FOR YOU 1.0% 100.52 10
YELLOWFINSURE JOYFULTHE MULTIPLIER — wonSHINING FORTUNECALIFORNIA CONCORDLUCKY RUBYGLUCK RACERMILLENNIUM FALCONVALHALLAGEM OF SOUTH CHINADRAGON STARGREAT FOR YOU

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 36

PLACE

1 33.5

4 15.5

9 15

QUINELLA

1,9 244.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 97

1,9 86

4,9 31

FORECAST

9,1 366

TIERCE

9,1,4 1,742

TRIO

1,4,9 303

FIRST 4

1,4,5,9 171

QUARTET

9,1,4,5 4,349

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 20

A2

4TH DOUBLE

11/1 344

11/9 628