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Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 16:38

Race 8

Class 2 GOOD 1800m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CHAMPION DRAGON, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1, with RUNNING GLORY second and BUTTERFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite RUNNING GLORY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.48.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 CHAMPION DRAGON Closed strongly H/TT 1.48.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 4.4 1
2 1 RUNNING GLORY Closed strongly H Bowman · J Size 3 4.3 1
3 5 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 4 10.0 2-1/4
4 2 SAVVY NINE Led early B/XB R Maia · D J Whyte 5 31.0 2-3/4
5 7 SPIRITED EXPRESS Closed strongly B K C Leung · P F Yiu 10 9.9 2-3/4
6 4 TURIN REDSUN SR-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 6 7.1 2-3/4
7 11 PERFECT TEAM TT H Bentley · C Fownes 1 15.0 2-3/4
8 3 THE IRISHMAN H/XB/TT S De Sousa · K W Lui 8 10.0 3-3/4
9 9 VIVA CHALEUR TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 6.2 4-1/4
10 6 LOOKING GREAT TT K Teetan · F C Lor 7 27.0 5-3/4
11 8 CELESTIAL POWER V M F Poon · F C Lor 11 37.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHAMPION DRAGON2. RUNNING GLORY+1L3. BUTTERFIELD+2.25L4. SAVVY NINE+2.75L5. SPIRITED EXPRESS+2.75L6. TURIN REDSUN+2.75L7. PERFECT TEAM+2.75L8. THE IRISHMAN+3.75L9. VIVA CHALEUR+4.25L10. LOOKING GREAT+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RUNNING GLORY (20.0%) finished 2nd — the winner CHAMPION DRAGON was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RUNNING GLORY 20.0% 5.00 2
2 3 THE IRISHMAN 17.6% 5.68 8
3 10 CHAMPION DRAGON 17.3% 5.80 1
4 9 VIVA CHALEUR 10.1% 9.92 9
5 5 BUTTERFIELD 7.8% 12.80 3
6 6 LOOKING GREAT 7.0% 14.36 10
7 7 SPIRITED EXPRESS 5.6% 17.78 5
8 4 TURIN REDSUN 4.5% 22.32 6
9 2 SAVVY NINE 4.1% 24.52 4
10 11 PERFECT TEAM 3.2% 31.38 7
11 8 CELESTIAL POWER 2.9% 34.15 11
RUNNING GLORYTHE IRISHMANCHAMPION DRAGON — wonVIVA CHALEURBUTTERFIELDLOOKING GREATSPIRITED EXPRESSTURIN REDSUNSAVVY NINEPERFECT TEAMCELESTIAL POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 44

PLACE

1 15.5

5 27.5

10 19

QUINELLA

1,10 103

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 67

1,10 42

5,10 79.5

FORECAST

10,1 226

TIERCE

10,1,5 849

TRIO

1,5,10 175

FIRST 4

1,2,5,10 1,420

QUARTET

10,1,5,2 19,055

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 22

A3

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,8>1,10/1,5,10 13,862

7TH DOUBLE

8/1 299.5

8/10 1,049.5