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Sha Tin · 2023-03-05 · 17:12

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ADEFILL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with ADIOS second and MAN STAR third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.07.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 ADEFILL CP 1.07.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 1.8 N
2 2 ADIOS CP-/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 3 10.0 N
3 6 MAN STAR V S De Sousa · K H Ting 6 18.0 1-1/2
4 4 CAPTAIN WIN B/XB/TT C Y Ho · P C Ng 7 19.0 3
5 5 LIGHTNING BOLT L Hewitson · C S Shum 4 6.8 3
6 10 SUPER KING SR/XB/TT V Borges · D J Whyte 1 62.0 4-3/4
7 8 ELON E/P A Hamelin · J Size 11 19.0 5-1/2
8 7 FLYING DRAGON B H Bentley · C H Yip 5 15.0 6-1/4
9 3 FIERY DIAMOND C L Chau · T P Yung 10 9.2 7-1/4
10 1 STREET SCREAM B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 15.0 7-1/2
11 9 LUCKY FUN M F Poon · L Ho 12 78.0 8
12 12 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B M L Yeung · K W Lui 2 104.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADEFILL2. ADIOS+0.05L3. MAN STAR+1.5L4. CAPTAIN WIN+3L5. LIGHTNING BOLT+3L6. SUPER KING+4.75L7. ELON+5.5L8. FLYING DRAGON+6.25L9. FIERY DIAMOND+7.25L10. STREET SCREAM+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ADEFILL (23.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 ADEFILL 23.1% 4.33 1
2 3 FIERY DIAMOND 10.5% 9.51 9
3 1 STREET SCREAM 10.5% 9.53 10
4 5 LIGHTNING BOLT 9.4% 10.63 5
5 6 MAN STAR 9.3% 10.81 3
6 4 CAPTAIN WIN 7.5% 13.41 4
7 2 ADIOS 7.1% 13.99 2
8 7 FLYING DRAGON 6.7% 14.92 8
9 8 ELON 6.1% 16.47 7
10 9 LUCKY FUN 4.1% 24.21 11
11 12 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.3% 30.39 12
12 10 SUPER KING 2.4% 40.83 6
ADEFILL — wonFIERY DIAMONDSTREET SCREAMLIGHTNING BOLTMAN STARCAPTAIN WINADIOSFLYING DRAGONELONLUCKY FUNHIGH RISE SOLDIERSUPER KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 18.5

PLACE

2 25.5

6 45.5

11 11.5

QUINELLA

2,11 93.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 232.5

2,11 42

6,11 73.5

FORECAST

11,2 132

TIERCE

11,2,6 1,651

TRIO

2,6,11 448

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 1,619

QUARTET

11,2,6,4 15,495

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3

8TH DOUBLE

10/2 65.5

10/11 87