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Sha Tin · 2023-03-26 · 13:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SPEEDY SMARTIE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by SH, with MODULECONSTRUCTION second and TRUST ME third. The 4.3 favourite MODULECONSTRUCTION finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SPEEDY SMARTIE TT 1.10.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 3 4.4 SH
2 6 MODULECONSTRUCTION TT M Chadwick · K W Lui 8 4.3 SH
3 9 TRUST ME B/H/TT1 A Badel · C H Yip 12 7.7 N
4 2 IMPERIAL MAGEE H-/SR/XB/TT S De Sousa · K H Ting 1 5.0 1
5 10 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK B H Bentley · W Y So 2 26.0 2
6 12 NOBLE BOYZ B/TT M F Poon · K L Man 4 18.0 3-1/2
7 1 CHILLI BABA B C Y Ho · P F Yiu 6 8.4 3-3/4
8 11 STARRY NIGHT B/TT L Currie · D A Hayes 10 15.0 7
9 7 ROARING BEBE XB1 L Hewitson · D J Hall 7 19.0 7
10 3 KING ECCELLENTE CP/H/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 11 14.0 7-3/4
11 5 CASA SACRED TT L Ferraris · J Richards 9 97.0 8-1/2
12 4 CAPTAIN HURRICANE H1 M L Yeung · L Ho 5 61.0 13-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPEEDY SMARTIE2. MODULECONSTRUCTION+0.1L3. TRUST ME+0.05L4. IMPERIAL MAGEE+1L5. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+2L6. NOBLE BOYZ+3.5L7. CHILLI BABA+3.75L8. STARRY NIGHT+7L9. ROARING BEBE+7L10. KING ECCELLENTE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SPEEDY SMARTIE (22.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SPEEDY SMARTIE 22.7% 4.41 1
2 6 MODULECONSTRUCTION 16.9% 5.92 2
3 2 IMPERIAL MAGEE 16.2% 6.16 4
4 3 KING ECCELLENTE 11.2% 8.94 10
5 1 CHILLI BABA 8.4% 11.96 7
6 12 NOBLE BOYZ 5.8% 17.23 6
7 9 TRUST ME 5.6% 17.72 3
8 7 ROARING BEBE 4.6% 21.87 9
9 11 STARRY NIGHT 3.2% 30.92 8
10 4 CAPTAIN HURRICANE 2.5% 40.01 12
11 10 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 1.9% 53.46 5
12 5 CASA SACRED 1.0% 95.43 11
SPEEDY SMARTIE — wonMODULECONSTRUCTIONIMPERIAL MAGEEKING ECCELLENTECHILLI BABANOBLE BOYZTRUST MEROARING BEBESTARRY NIGHTCAPTAIN HURRICANEGOODLUCK GOODLUCKCASA SACRED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 44.5

PLACE

6 15.5

8 20

9 26.5

QUINELLA

6,8 74.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 30

6,9 80.5

8,9 84

FORECAST

8,6 144

TIERCE

8,6,9 1,191

TRIO

6,8,9 282

FIRST 4

2,6,8,9 264

QUARTET

8,6,9,2 4,610

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/6 27.5

1/8 129.5

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 22

A2