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Sha Tin · 2023-03-26 · 13:17

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1600m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-26 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. DRAGON PRIDE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1/2, with HANG'S CHOICE second and OVER THE MOON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.36.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly V 1.36.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 14 3.8 1/2
2 12 HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 8.1 1/2
3 3 OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 5.2 1-1/2
4 10 ANGELS HUNTER B-/V1 M F Poon · K L Man 11 74.0 2
5 4 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 3 6.5 2
6 5 YOUNG SPARKLE Closed strongly L Hewitson · A T Millard 4 27.0 2-1/2
7 9 VUKAN B-/XB/TT K C Leung · J Richards 13 7.1 3-3/4
8 14 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly M L Yeung · L Ho 9 88.0 4
9 11 FOXHUNTER WAY C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 15.0 4
10 6 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V K Teetan · C H Yip 10 11.0 9
11 7 SO YOU TRUST E1/TT A Badel · J Size 12 39.0 9-3/4
12 8 DOUBLE SHOW B/SR/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 8 16.0 10-1/2
13 13 MISTER MONTE CP H T Mo · C W Chang 2 32.0 14-1/4
14 2 JUST GREAT TWO Led early B L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 72.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DRAGON PRIDE2. HANG'S CHOICE+0.5L3. OVER THE MOON+1.5L4. ANGELS HUNTER+2L5. SUPERB DADDY+2L6. YOUNG SPARKLE+2.5L7. VUKAN+3.75L8. SPLENDID STAR+4L9. FOXHUNTER WAY+4L10. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SUPERB DADDY (14.4%) finished 5th — the winner DRAGON PRIDE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SUPERB DADDY 14.4% 6.96 5
2 11 FOXHUNTER WAY 12.2% 8.18 9
3 3 OVER THE MOON 11.3% 8.87 3
4 12 HANG'S CHOICE 10.9% 9.17 2
5 1 DRAGON PRIDE 10.2% 9.78 1
6 5 YOUNG SPARKLE 8.0% 12.53 6
7 6 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 6.6% 15.04 10
8 8 DOUBLE SHOW 6.6% 15.06 12
9 9 VUKAN 6.2% 16.01 7
10 7 SO YOU TRUST 4.4% 22.78 11
11 10 ANGELS HUNTER 4.1% 24.63 4
12 14 SPLENDID STAR 1.9% 51.72 8
13 2 JUST GREAT TWO 1.6% 60.90 14
14 13 MISTER MONTE 1.5% 68.79 13
SUPERB DADDYFOXHUNTER WAYOVER THE MOONHANG'S CHOICEDRAGON PRIDE — wonYOUNG SPARKLEMURRAY'S PARTNERSDOUBLE SHOWVUKANSO YOU TRUSTANGELS HUNTERSPLENDID STARJUST GREAT TWOMISTER MONTE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 38.5

PLACE

1 16.5

3 21.5

12 23

QUINELLA

1,12 173

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 42

1,12 69

3,12 78.5

FORECAST

1,12 323

TIERCE

1,12,3 1,698

TRIO

1,3,12 306

FIRST 4

1,3,10,12 4,900

QUARTET

1,12,3,10 60,155

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/1 335

8/12 75.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/1,3,12 14,110

3 PICK 1

A2 17

A3

A1