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Sha Tin · 2023-03-26 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-26 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FLYING HIGH, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won by N, with CHEVAL VALIANT second and METRO WARRIOR third. The 3.3 favourite SEASONS WIT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 FLYING HIGH TT 0.56.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So 10 12.0 N
2 9 CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte 2 4.2 N
3 2 METRO WARRIOR B L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 18.0 3-1/4
4 8 SEASONS WIT B1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 9 3.3 3-1/4
5 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B K C Leung · P F Yiu 13 6.7 3-1/2
6 1 RUN RUN COOL PC H Bowman · F C Lor 8 16.0 4
7 5 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 14 10.0 4-1/4
8 4 NICCONI COUNTY TT S De Sousa · C Fownes 12 17.0 5-1/2
9 13 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT A Hamelin · J Size 6 29.0 7-1/4
10 6 FLYING DRAGON B H Bentley · C H Yip 7 47.0 8
11 10 READY TO WIN XB/TT L Currie · F C Lor 5 58.0 10
12 12 SILVER SONIC TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 87.0 10-1/4
13 14 TALENTS SUPREMO XB K Teetan · R Gibson 4 13.0 10-1/2
14 7 NAMJONG SINGS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 3 61.0 22-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING HIGH2. CHEVAL VALIANT+0.05L3. METRO WARRIOR+3.25L4. SEASONS WIT+3.25L5. PLEASANT ENDEAVOR+3.5L6. RUN RUN COOL+4L7. CALIFORNIA RAD+4.25L8. NICCONI COUNTY+5.5L9. SAVVY DELIGHT+7.25L10. FLYING DRAGON+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SEASONS WIT (23.4%) finished 4th — the winner FLYING HIGH was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 SEASONS WIT 23.4% 4.27 4
2 9 CHEVAL VALIANT 15.9% 6.27 2
3 1 RUN RUN COOL 10.8% 9.29 6
4 3 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 6.8% 14.70 5
5 11 FLYING HIGH 5.5% 18.18 1
6 14 TALENTS SUPREMO 5.3% 18.72 13
7 5 CALIFORNIA RAD 5.1% 19.60 7
8 4 NICCONI COUNTY 4.8% 20.92 8
9 12 SILVER SONIC 4.8% 20.99 12
10 13 SAVVY DELIGHT 4.3% 23.20 9
11 2 METRO WARRIOR 4.1% 24.11 3
12 7 NAMJONG SINGS 3.8% 26.01 14
13 6 FLYING DRAGON 2.7% 36.66 10
14 10 READY TO WIN 2.5% 39.33 11
SEASONS WITCHEVAL VALIANTRUN RUN COOLPLEASANT ENDEAVORFLYING HIGH — wonTALENTS SUPREMOCALIFORNIA RADNICCONI COUNTYSILVER SONICSAVVY DELIGHTMETRO WARRIORNAMJONG SINGSFLYING DRAGONREADY TO WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 123.5

PLACE

2 41.5

9 19

11 30

QUINELLA

9,11 248

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 118

2,11 200

9,11 93.5

FORECAST

11,9 569

TIERCE

11,9,2 7,661

TRIO

2,9,11 1,433

FIRST 4

2,8,9,11 819

QUARTET

11,9,2,8 32,951

All pools (3 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 25.5

A2

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

6,9,10/2,9,11 78,430

7TH DOUBLE

10/9 23.5

10/11 380.5