Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-03-26 · 14:18

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-03-26 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ERNEST FEELING, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by R Gibson, won by SH, with WINWIN THIRTYTHREE second and YOUNG HORIZON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite WINWIN THIRTYTHREE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.59
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT 1.23.59 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · R Gibson 8 10.0 SH
2 1 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V H Bowman · P F Yiu 3 4.0 SH
3 2 YOUNG HORIZON Closed strongly H/P C Y Ho · D A Hayes 13 10.0 1
4 5 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 4 15.0 1-3/4
5 14 ALLOY STAR Closed strongly B M Chadwick · T P Yung 2 17.0 2-3/4
6 4 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · C H Yip 14 14.0 3
7 13 TRAVEL GLORY Led early B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 6 13.0 3-1/2
8 3 SPICY SKEWER B S De Sousa · K L Man 11 28.0 4-1/4
9 10 HANDSOME GUYS TT L Currie · C Fownes 5 17.0 5-1/2
10 11 GIVE WAY PLEASE B/H/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 9 5.7 7-1/4
11 8 HUNKY DORY B-/SR1/V1/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 1 14.0 7-1/4
12 7 FORTUNE MASTER B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 8.1 13
13 12 THIS IS GUTS TT V Borges · C H Yip 12 82.0 14
9 FELIX THE KING B/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang 7 22.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ERNEST FEELING2. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+0.1L3. YOUNG HORIZON+1L4. BEAUTY NOVA+1.75L5. ALLOY STAR+2.75L6. MAXIMIZE HEART+3L7. TRAVEL GLORY+3.5L8. SPICY SKEWER+4.25L9. HANDSOME GUYS+5.5L10. GIVE WAY PLEASE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick YOUNG HORIZON (13.4%) finished 3rd — the winner ERNEST FEELING was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 YOUNG HORIZON 13.4% 7.47 3
2 5 BEAUTY NOVA 13.3% 7.55 4
3 7 FORTUNE MASTER 12.0% 8.33 12
4 11 GIVE WAY PLEASE 10.5% 9.49 10
5 14 ALLOY STAR 8.8% 11.32 5
6 10 HANDSOME GUYS 7.6% 13.18 9
7 6 ERNEST FEELING 6.6% 15.23 1
8 1 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 6.1% 16.50 2
9 3 SPICY SKEWER 5.9% 16.94 8
10 8 HUNKY DORY 5.4% 18.47 11
11 13 TRAVEL GLORY 4.9% 20.39 7
12 12 THIS IS GUTS 3.3% 30.29 13
13 4 MAXIMIZE HEART 2.2% 44.63 6
YOUNG HORIZONBEAUTY NOVAFORTUNE MASTERGIVE WAY PLEASEALLOY STARHANDSOME GUYSERNEST FEELING — wonWINWIN THIRTYTHREESPICY SKEWERHUNKY DORYTRAVEL GLORYTHIS IS GUTSMAXIMIZE HEART

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 108.5

PLACE

1 17.5

2 36.5

6 30.5

QUINELLA

1,6 250

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 98.5

1,6 85

2,6 205

FORECAST

6,1 719

TIERCE

6,1,2 7,109

TRIO

1,2,6 1,080

FIRST 4

1,2,5,6 3,693

QUARTET

6,1,2,5 95,174

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

6,8,9/1,2,6 30,088

3 PICK 1

A1

A3 19

A2

3RD DOUBLE

8/1 33

8/6 693.5