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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. APEX TOP, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2, with TOUCH FAITH second and INSPIRING CITY third. The winner led throughout. The 4.1 favourite GENERAL WINNER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.22.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 APEX TOP Wire to wire B 1.22.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Whyte 12 6.2 2
2 11 TOUCH FAITH Closed strongly P- Z Purton · J Size 6 10.0 2
3 6 INSPIRING CITY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 8.3 2-3/4
4 13 HEAVENLY THOUGHT Closed strongly B A Badel · C H Yip 13 17.0 2-3/4
5 2 GENERAL WINNER CP2 K Teetan · W Y So 4 4.1 3-1/4
6 4 VALHALLA Closed strongly B-/XB/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 11 7.1 3-3/4
7 12 ONE STEP AHEAD Closed strongly B M Chadwick · C W Chang 9 25.0 4
8 3 STAR OF YUEN LONG B2/TT M F Poon · K L Man 10 11.0 4-3/4
9 5 YOUNG SPARKLE L Currie · A T Millard 3 15.0 5
10 7 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 2 7.7 5-3/4
11 9 BRILLIANT EIGHT B- K C Leung · Y S Tsui 8 34.0 7-1/4
12 1 FLYING GALLOP Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 14 86.0 8-3/4
13 8 EASY LIFE B-/H-/TT V Borges · K H Ting 5 76.0 10-1/4
14 14 ALLOY STAR B H T Mo · T P Yung 7 40.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. APEX TOP2. TOUCH FAITH+2L3. INSPIRING CITY+2.75L4. HEAVENLY THOUGHT+2.75L5. GENERAL WINNER+3.25L6. VALHALLA+3.75L7. ONE STEP AHEAD+4L8. STAR OF YUEN LONG+4.75L9. YOUNG SPARKLE+5L10. ERNEST FEELING+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TOUCH FAITH (19.7%) finished 2nd — the winner APEX TOP was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 TOUCH FAITH 19.7% 5.07 2
2 6 INSPIRING CITY 13.8% 7.25 3
3 7 ERNEST FEELING 11.8% 8.47 10
4 4 VALHALLA 11.5% 8.68 6
5 2 GENERAL WINNER 10.0% 10.05 5
6 10 APEX TOP 7.2% 13.91 1
7 5 YOUNG SPARKLE 5.0% 19.91 9
8 3 STAR OF YUEN LONG 4.6% 21.71 8
9 12 ONE STEP AHEAD 4.6% 21.72 7
10 13 HEAVENLY THOUGHT 3.9% 25.40 4
11 14 ALLOY STAR 3.4% 29.41 14
12 9 BRILLIANT EIGHT 2.0% 50.16 11
13 8 EASY LIFE 1.3% 76.44 13
14 1 FLYING GALLOP 1.1% 88.96 12
TOUCH FAITHINSPIRING CITYERNEST FEELINGVALHALLAGENERAL WINNERAPEX TOP — wonYOUNG SPARKLESTAR OF YUEN LONGONE STEP AHEADHEAVENLY THOUGHTALLOY STARBRILLIANT EIGHTEASY LIFEFLYING GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 62.5

PLACE

6 25

10 24.5

11 36

QUINELLA

10,11 276

QUINELLA PLACE

6,10 85

6,11 127

10,11 105.5

FORECAST

10,11 660

TIERCE

10,11,6 3,362

TRIO

6,10,11 690

FIRST 4

6,10,11,13 3,041

QUARTET

10,11,6,13 49,051

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 36

A2

A3