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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 14:01

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MAXIMIZE HEART, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with BEAUTY NOVA second and SMART FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.62
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly 1.22.62 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip 7 3.5 3/4
2 9 BEAUTY NOVA Closed strongly TT A Badel · J Size 8 11.0 3/4
3 4 SMART FOLKS Led early B/SR A Hamelin · C W Chang 5 14.0 2
4 5 YOUNG HORIZON Closed strongly H/P C Y Ho · D A Hayes 6 5.7 2-1/4
5 1 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 14 30.0 3
6 14 SURE WINNER V- H T Mo · Y S Tsui 10 24.0 3-1/2
7 12 VIVA A LA H/P/TT M F Poon · L Ho 4 40.0 4-1/2
8 3 LUCK STAR Z Purton · T P Yung 1 5.2 5-1/4
9 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE Closed strongly B/H/XB/TT K Teetan · K H Ting 3 9.1 6
10 11 ENCORE B/TT L Currie · C S Shum 11 24.0 6-1/4
11 8 VUKAN XB/V1/TT K C Leung · J Richards 13 18.0 10-1/2
12 2 SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 9 83.0 12-1/2
13 6 ALL IS READY B V Borges · P F Yiu 12 66.0 15
14 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY H/TT L Ferraris · K L Man 2 12.0 29-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAXIMIZE HEART2. BEAUTY NOVA+0.75L3. SMART FOLKS+2L4. YOUNG HORIZON+2.25L5. MASTER OF LUCK+3L6. SURE WINNER+3.5L7. VIVA A LA+4.5L8. LUCK STAR+5.25L9. GIVE WAY PLEASE+6L10. ENCORE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LUCK STAR (21.6%) finished 8th — the winner MAXIMIZE HEART was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 LUCK STAR 21.6% 4.63 8
2 5 YOUNG HORIZON 14.2% 7.03 4
3 4 SMART FOLKS 9.1% 10.99 3
4 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE 8.2% 12.17 9
5 1 MASTER OF LUCK 7.3% 13.65 5
6 9 BEAUTY NOVA 7.3% 13.79 2
7 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY 6.7% 14.94 14
8 7 MAXIMIZE HEART 6.0% 16.55 1
9 8 VUKAN 5.9% 16.90 11
10 12 VIVA A LA 4.8% 20.98 7
11 11 ENCORE 3.3% 30.66 10
12 6 ALL IS READY 2.3% 43.96 13
13 14 SURE WINNER 1.8% 56.01 6
14 2 SMART BEAUTY 1.5% 65.26 12
LUCK STARYOUNG HORIZONSMART FOLKSGIVE WAY PLEASEMASTER OF LUCKBEAUTY NOVATSUEN WAN GLORYMAXIMIZE HEART — wonVUKANVIVA A LAENCOREALL IS READYSURE WINNERSMART BEAUTY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 35.5

PLACE

4 39.5

7 14.5

9 31

QUINELLA

7,9 261.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 85.5

4,9 175.5

7,9 94.5

FORECAST

7,9 427

TIERCE

7,9,4 4,116

TRIO

4,7,9 970

FIRST 4

4,5,7,9 539

QUARTET

7,9,4,5 13,764

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

5/7 1,556.5

5/9 442

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 22

A2