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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 15:06

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. WAR OF COURAGE, ridden by K H Chan and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with RED HARE KING second and WAR WEAPON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite RED HARE KING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.14
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 WAR OF COURAGE Closed strongly B 1.22.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · K L Man 13 54.0 1/2
2 10 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 4.4 1/2
3 7 WAR WEAPON Closed strongly XB/TT A Badel · P C Ng 14 5.4 1-3/4
4 3 LUCKY GOLD Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 5.4 2-1/2
5 2 HORSESAIN BOLT Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 2 9.9 3
6 13 COLONEL Led early V H T Mo · P F Yiu 6 48.0 3-1/4
7 5 TURIN WARRIOR Closed strongly B/XB A Hamelin · R Gibson 11 17.0 3-1/2
8 12 BEAU GOSSE CP/H1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 12.0 3-3/4
9 8 FLAMINGO TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor 5 7.1 4-1/4
10 14 STAR OF GLORY B C Wong · C W Chang 8 97.0 4-1/2
11 4 CHARMANDER Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · J Richards 10 21.0 5-3/4
12 6 PROUD DRAGON V H Bowman · C Fownes 9 11.0 7-1/2
13 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON H/V1 L Ferraris · T P Yung 12 95.0 11
14 1 COUNTRY BOY H/P/TT Z Purton · J Size 7 21.0 42-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WAR OF COURAGE2. RED HARE KING+0.5L3. WAR WEAPON+1.75L4. LUCKY GOLD+2.5L5. HORSESAIN BOLT+3L6. COLONEL+3.25L7. TURIN WARRIOR+3.5L8. BEAU GOSSE+3.75L9. FLAMINGO TRILLION+4.25L10. STAR OF GLORY+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PROUD DRAGON (12.7%) finished 12th — the winner WAR OF COURAGE was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PROUD DRAGON 12.7% 7.88 12
2 3 LUCKY GOLD 11.9% 8.43 4
3 2 HORSESAIN BOLT 11.8% 8.48 5
4 10 RED HARE KING 10.3% 9.72 2
5 7 WAR WEAPON 10.3% 9.75 3
6 4 CHARMANDER 8.3% 12.06 11
7 8 FLAMINGO TRILLION 7.8% 12.82 9
8 1 COUNTRY BOY 7.4% 13.56 14
9 5 TURIN WARRIOR 6.0% 16.64 7
10 13 COLONEL 4.8% 20.99 6
11 11 WAR OF COURAGE 3.3% 30.08 1
12 14 STAR OF GLORY 2.1% 46.83 10
13 12 BEAU GOSSE 2.1% 48.09 8
14 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON 1.3% 76.11 13
PROUD DRAGONLUCKY GOLDHORSESAIN BOLTRED HARE KINGWAR WEAPONCHARMANDERFLAMINGO TRILLIONCOUNTRY BOYTURIN WARRIORCOLONELWAR OF COURAGE — wonSTAR OF GLORYBEAU GOSSEMILLENNIUM FALCON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 542

PLACE

7 19.5

10 17.5

11 136.5

QUINELLA

10,11 1,354.5

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 58

7,11 360

10,11 409

FORECAST

11,10 4,050

TIERCE

11,10,7 27,241

TRIO

7,10,11 1,789

FIRST 4

3,7,10,11 2,665

QUARTET

11,10,7,3 107,470

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 21

A1

4TH DOUBLE

1/10 16.5

1/11 820.5