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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 13:32

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOLDEN SAMURAI, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by NOSE, with MARVEL DRAGON second and SUNLIGHT POWER third. The 3.4 favourite TRUST ME finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.09.85
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT 1.09.85 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 21.0 NOSE
2 9 MARVEL DRAGON TT Z Purton · T P Yung 7 4.0 NOSE
3 7 SUNLIGHT POWER K Teetan · P F Yiu 9 6.9 N
4 11 SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 8.7 1/2
5 6 LUCKY PLANET SR1/XB1 L Ferraris · D J Whyte 4 35.0 2
6 2 GLUCK RACER V M F Poon · L Ho 12 22.0 2-1/2
7 4 CHAMPION INSTINCT H Bowman · D J Hall 3 4.5 3-1/2
8 8 EASY TWO TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 2 129.0 3-3/4
9 10 TRUST ME B/H/TT A Badel · C H Yip 5 3.4 3-3/4
10 12 BEAT HOLLOW CP1 K C Leung · Y S Tsui 11 40.0 4-1/2
11 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz 10 25.0 6-3/4
3 CALL ME MIGHTY H T Mo · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN SAMURAI2. MARVEL DRAGON+0.05L3. SUNLIGHT POWER+0.05L4. SUPER HIGHWAY+0.5L5. LUCKY PLANET+2L6. GLUCK RACER+2.5L7. CHAMPION INSTINCT+3.5L8. EASY TWO+3.75L9. TRUST ME+3.75L10. BEAT HOLLOW+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick CHAMPION INSTINCT (27.2%) finished 7th — the winner GOLDEN SAMURAI was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CHAMPION INSTINCT 27.2% 3.68 7
2 9 MARVEL DRAGON 16.6% 6.02 2
3 10 TRUST ME 11.3% 8.89 9
4 7 SUNLIGHT POWER 10.5% 9.51 3
5 1 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 7.1% 14.06 11
6 11 SUPER HIGHWAY 6.3% 15.86 4
7 5 GOLDEN SAMURAI 6.0% 16.69 1
8 6 LUCKY PLANET 5.6% 17.90 5
9 2 GLUCK RACER 4.6% 21.72 6
10 12 BEAT HOLLOW 3.3% 30.15 10
11 8 EASY TWO 1.5% 64.53 8
CHAMPION INSTINCTMARVEL DRAGONTRUST MESUNLIGHT POWERCALIFORNIA CONCORDSUPER HIGHWAYGOLDEN SAMURAI — wonLUCKY PLANETGLUCK RACERBEAT HOLLOWEASY TWO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 212.5

PLACE

5 48.5

7 25

9 17

QUINELLA

5,9 394

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 202

5,9 116

7,9 61.5

FORECAST

5,9 973

TIERCE

5,9,7 8,471

TRIO

5,7,9 762

FIRST 4

5,7,9,11 1,235

QUARTET

5,9,7,11 37,927

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

10/5 1,405.5

10/9 63.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,10,11/5,7,9 136,778

3 PICK 1

A3 34.5

A2

A1