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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FOREVER GLORIOUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with GOLD TACK second and TURQUOISE ALPHA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GOLD TACK finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.47.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 15.0 1
2 5 GOLD TACK Closed strongly CP1 H Bowman · A T Millard 12 3.8 1
3 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 3 9.8 2-1/4
4 13 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 14 11.0 2-1/2
5 11 SURREALISM Closed strongly B Y L Chung · R Gibson 8 46.0 3
6 12 REGENCY MASTER B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 1 11.0 3-3/4
7 3 DRAGON DELIGHT CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 4.9 4
8 1 PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes 5 36.0 4
9 8 PALACE PAL A Badel · D J Hall 4 5.8 4-1/4
10 2 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 10 37.0 6-3/4
11 10 DEAR SIBLING Closed strongly B K H Chan · K L Man 13 73.0 8-1/4
12 4 LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting 11 33.0 9-1/2
13 6 OSCAR GLORY Led early V L Ferraris · F C Lor 2 16.0 11-1/2
9 ROBOT WARRIOR V K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 18.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER GLORIOUS2. GOLD TACK+1L3. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.25L4. VINCY+2.5L5. SURREALISM+3L6. REGENCY MASTER+3.75L7. DRAGON DELIGHT+4L8. PACKING HURRICANE+4L9. PALACE PAL+4.25L10. INCANTO PREPARED+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick DRAGON DELIGHT (19.7%) finished 7th — the winner FOREVER GLORIOUS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 DRAGON DELIGHT 19.7% 5.09 7
2 5 GOLD TACK 19.5% 5.13 2
3 8 PALACE PAL 10.3% 9.73 9
4 6 OSCAR GLORY 8.9% 11.19 13
5 12 REGENCY MASTER 8.1% 12.35 6
6 7 TURQUOISE ALPHA 7.6% 13.10 3
7 11 SURREALISM 5.2% 19.37 5
8 14 FOREVER GLORIOUS 5.1% 19.74 1
9 13 VINCY 4.5% 22.47 4
10 2 INCANTO PREPARED 3.7% 26.83 10
11 4 LUCKY DIAMOND 3.7% 27.37 12
12 1 PACKING HURRICANE 2.4% 41.19 8
13 10 DEAR SIBLING 1.4% 70.44 11
DRAGON DELIGHTGOLD TACKPALACE PALOSCAR GLORYREGENCY MASTERTURQUOISE ALPHASURREALISMFOREVER GLORIOUS — wonVINCYINCANTO PREPAREDLUCKY DIAMONDPACKING HURRICANEDEAR SIBLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 152

PLACE

5 16

7 29

14 46

QUINELLA

5,14 310

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 77.5

5,14 118

7,14 198.5

FORECAST

14,5 897

TIERCE

14,5,7 5,873

TRIO

5,7,14 1,084

FIRST 4

5,7,13,14 2,081

QUARTET

14,5,7,13 48,568

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 31

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,10,11/5,7,14 213,731

5TH DOUBLE

11/5 483

11/14 8,435

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,7,12/7,10,11/Any Combination 220,450