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Sha Tin · 2023-04-15 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.47.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS Closed strongly B/TT 1.47.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 15.0 1
2 0 GOLD TACK Closed strongly CP1 H Bowman · A T Millard 12 3.8 1
3 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB M Chadwick · P C Ng 3 9.8 2-1/4
4 0 VINCY Closed strongly SR/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 14 11.0 2-1/2
5 0 SURREALISM Closed strongly B Y L Chung · R Gibson 8 46.0 3
6 0 REGENCY MASTER B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 1 11.0 3-3/4
7 0 DRAGON DELIGHT CP Z Purton · D A Hayes 6 4.9 4
8 0 PACKING HURRICANE Closed strongly TT K Teetan · C Fownes 5 36.0 4
9 0 PALACE PAL A Badel · D J Hall 4 5.8 4-1/4
10 0 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 10 37.0 6-3/4
11 0 DEAR SIBLING Closed strongly B K H Chan · K L Man 13 73.0 8-1/4
12 0 LUCKY DIAMOND B/TT L Currie · K H Ting 11 33.0 9-1/2
13 0 OSCAR GLORY Led early V L Ferraris · F C Lor 2 16.0 11-1/2
— 0 ROBOT WARRIOR V K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 18.0 —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-15 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. FOREVER GLORIOUS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1, with GOLD TACK second and TURQUOISE ALPHA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite GOLD TACK finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FOREVER GLORIOUS—2. GOLD TACK+1L3. TURQUOISE ALPHA+2.25L4. VINCY+2.5L5. SURREALISM+3L6. REGENCY MASTER+3.75L7. DRAGON DELIGHT+4L8. PACKING HURRICANE+4L9. PALACE PAL+4.25L10. INCANTO PREPARED+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick DRAGON DELIGHT (19.7%) finished 7th — the winner FOREVER GLORIOUS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 DRAGON DELIGHT 19.7% 5.09 7
2 0 GOLD TACK 19.5% 5.13 2
3 0 PALACE PAL 10.3% 9.73 9
4 0 OSCAR GLORY 8.9% 11.19 13
5 0 REGENCY MASTER 8.1% 12.35 6
6 0 TURQUOISE ALPHA 7.6% 13.10 3
7 0 SURREALISM 5.2% 19.37 5
8 0 FOREVER GLORIOUS 5.1% 19.74 1
9 0 VINCY 4.5% 22.47 4
10 0 INCANTO PREPARED 3.7% 26.83 10
11 0 LUCKY DIAMOND 3.7% 27.37 12
12 0 PACKING HURRICANE 2.4% 41.19 8
13 0 DEAR SIBLING 1.4% 70.44 11
DRAGON DELIGHTGOLD TACKPALACE PALOSCAR GLORYREGENCY MASTERTURQUOISE ALPHASURREALISMFOREVER GLORIOUS — wonVINCYINCANTO PREPAREDLUCKY DIAMONDPACKING HURRICANEDEAR SIBLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 152

PLACE

5 16

7 29

14 46

QUINELLA

5,14 310

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 77.5

5,14 118

7,14 198.5

FORECAST

14,5 897

TIERCE

14,5,7 5,873

TRIO

5,7,14 1,084

FIRST 4

5,7,13,14 2,081

QUARTET

14,5,7,13 48,568

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 31

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,10,11/5,7,14 213,731

5TH DOUBLE

11/5 483

11/14 8,435

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,7,12/7,10,11/Any Combination 220,450