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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 13:02

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO YIELDING 1800m Course C 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. PAKISTAN FRIEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by 1-1/4, with RED ELYSEES second and RING BELLS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite OVER THE MOON finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.49.91
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly TT 1.49.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 6 4.7 1-1/4
2 1 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 14 11.0 1-1/4
3 11 RING BELLS Led early B/XB/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 6.5 1-1/2
4 14 BARON ZEE Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 10 23.0 2-1/4
5 8 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 2 18.0 2-1/4
6 9 LUCKY MISSILE CP M F Poon · D J Hall 4 7.6 3-3/4
7 10 GOLDEN FAIRY XB R Maia · A T Millard 3 52.0 4-1/4
8 3 OVER THE MOON Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 4.1 5-1/4
9 13 SMILING FACE SR/CP1/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 21.0 6-1/4
10 12 CABLE SPEED Closed strongly TT C L Cheung · C W Chang 12 18.0 7-1/4
11 6 MURRAY'S PARTNERS Closed strongly V C L Chau · C H Yip 9 22.0 8
12 4 RED IMPACT Closed strongly B/XB/TT K Teetan · D J Hall 13 17.0 8-1/2
13 5 FLYING GALLOP XB1/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 1 64.0 9-1/4
14 2 STARSHIP EIGHTY B/H/TT A Badel · P C Ng 11 18.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PAKISTAN FRIEND—2. RED ELYSEES+1.25L3. RING BELLS+1.5L4. BARON ZEE+2.25L5. SUPERB DADDY+2.25L6. LUCKY MISSILE+3.75L7. GOLDEN FAIRY+4.25L8. OVER THE MOON+5.25L9. SMILING FACE+6.25L10. CABLE SPEED+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick OVER THE MOON (20.3%) finished 8th — the winner PAKISTAN FRIEND was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 OVER THE MOON 20.3% 4.92 8
2 12 CABLE SPEED 11.7% 8.55 10
3 11 RING BELLS 10.4% 9.64 3
4 7 PAKISTAN FRIEND 9.1% 11.01 1
5 4 RED IMPACT 8.1% 12.29 12
6 8 SUPERB DADDY 7.4% 13.53 5
7 9 LUCKY MISSILE 7.2% 13.79 6
8 1 RED ELYSEES 5.7% 17.40 2
9 13 SMILING FACE 5.0% 19.96 9
10 6 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 4.0% 25.19 11
11 2 STARSHIP EIGHTY 3.5% 28.75 14
12 10 GOLDEN FAIRY 3.1% 32.64 7
13 14 BARON ZEE 2.9% 34.57 4
14 5 FLYING GALLOP 1.6% 63.00 13
OVER THE MOONCABLE SPEEDRING BELLSPAKISTAN FRIEND — wonRED IMPACTSUPERB DADDYLUCKY MISSILERED ELYSEESSMILING FACEMURRAY'S PARTNERSSTARSHIP EIGHTYGOLDEN FAIRYBARON ZEEFLYING GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 47.5

PLACE

1 33.5

7 20

11 27.5

QUINELLA

1,7 279.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 99.5

1,11 146.5

7,11 68

FORECAST

7,1 518

TIERCE

7,1,11 3,938

TRIO

1,7,11 731

FIRST 4

1,7,11,14 3,704

QUARTET

7,1,11,14 50,150

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 22

A3 —

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99