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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 YIELDING 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with CASA LEGEND second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SOLAR PARTNER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.23.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION Closed strongly 1.23.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 2 9.9 1-1/2
2 12 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 5.6 1-1/2
3 4 SOLAR PARTNER Led early CP/TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 11 3.7 2-3/4
4 1 ARIEL CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 14 6.9 3-1/2
5 6 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 57.0 5-1/2
6 2 GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 4.8 5-1/2
7 5 DINOSAUR BOY Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 123.0 5-3/4
8 8 AMAZING TRAVIS Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 7 173.0 6-3/4
9 3 D STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 8.5 6-3/4
10 9 HERO ICON TT M Chadwick · K L Man 8 12.0 7
11 10 M UNICORN H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 12 47.0 7
12 14 NOBLE ACE TT K Teetan · J Size 4 43.0 14
13 11 BRILLIANT PIONEER H2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 31.0 14-3/4
14 13 SUPER MAGIC B A Badel · P C Ng 1 127.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMINGO TRILLION2. CASA LEGEND+1.5L3. SOLAR PARTNER+2.75L4. ARIEL+3.5L5. SHARPEN BRIGHT+5.5L6. GOLDEN SAMURAI+5.5L7. DINOSAUR BOY+5.75L8. AMAZING TRAVIS+6.75L9. D STAR+6.75L10. HERO ICON+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ARIEL (23.9%) finished 4th — the winner FLAMINGO TRILLION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ARIEL 23.9% 4.19 4
2 2 GOLDEN SAMURAI 15.6% 6.42 6
3 4 SOLAR PARTNER 15.1% 6.63 3
4 7 FLAMINGO TRILLION 9.3% 10.70 1
5 3 D STAR 7.4% 13.59 9
6 12 CASA LEGEND 7.3% 13.70 2
7 9 HERO ICON 4.3% 23.11 10
8 6 SHARPEN BRIGHT 3.8% 26.19 5
9 11 BRILLIANT PIONEER 3.2% 30.98 13
10 14 NOBLE ACE 3.2% 31.73 12
11 10 M UNICORN 2.9% 34.64 11
12 13 SUPER MAGIC 2.1% 48.37 14
13 5 DINOSAUR BOY 1.2% 83.18 7
14 8 AMAZING TRAVIS 0.8% 129.89 8
ARIELGOLDEN SAMURAISOLAR PARTNERFLAMINGO TRILLION — wonD STARCASA LEGENDHERO ICONSHARPEN BRIGHTBRILLIANT PIONEERNOBLE ACEM UNICORNSUPER MAGICDINOSAUR BOYAMAZING TRAVIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 99.5

PLACE

4 17

7 30

12 20.5

QUINELLA

7,12 249.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 70

4,12 47

7,12 85

FORECAST

7,12 905

TIERCE

7,12,4 2,433

TRIO

4,7,12 261

FIRST 4

1,4,7,12 583

QUARTET

7,12,4,1 18,889

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 33.5

A1

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/4,7,12 89,691

5TH DOUBLE

1/7 1,389

1/12 91.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,9,13/1,5,9/Any Combination 377,290