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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 15:36

Race 6

Class 4 YIELDING 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.23.73
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION Closed strongly 1.23.73 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · F C Lor 2 9.9 1-1/2
2 0 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 10 5.6 1-1/2
3 0 SOLAR PARTNER Led early CP/TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 11 3.7 2-3/4
4 0 ARIEL CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 14 6.9 3-1/2
6 0 GOLDEN SAMURAI B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 4.8 5-1/2
7 0 DINOSAUR BOY Closed strongly B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 123.0 5-3/4
8 0 AMAZING TRAVIS Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · W Y So 7 173.0 6-3/4
9 0 D STAR B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 13 8.5 6-3/4
10 0 HERO ICON TT M Chadwick · K L Man 8 12.0 7
11 0 M UNICORN H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 12 47.0 7
12 0 NOBLE ACE TT K Teetan · J Size 4 43.0 14
13 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER H2 A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 31.0 14-3/4
14 0 SUPER MAGIC B A Badel · P C Ng 1 127.0 16-3/4
— 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall — 57.0 5-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. FLAMINGO TRILLION, ridden by K C Leung and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/2, with CASA LEGEND second and SOLAR PARTNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite SOLAR PARTNER finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLAMINGO TRILLION—2. CASA LEGEND+1.5L3. SOLAR PARTNER+2.75L4. ARIEL+3.5L6. GOLDEN SAMURAI+5.5L7. DINOSAUR BOY+5.75L8. AMAZING TRAVIS+6.75L9. D STAR+6.75L10. HERO ICON+7L11. M UNICORN+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ARIEL (23.9%) finished 4th — the winner FLAMINGO TRILLION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ARIEL 23.9% 4.19 4
2 0 GOLDEN SAMURAI 15.6% 6.42 6
3 0 SOLAR PARTNER 15.1% 6.63 3
4 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION 9.3% 10.70 1
5 0 D STAR 7.4% 13.59 9
6 0 CASA LEGEND 7.3% 13.70 2
7 0 HERO ICON 4.3% 23.11 10
8 0 SHARPEN BRIGHT 3.8% 26.19 —
9 0 BRILLIANT PIONEER 3.2% 30.98 13
10 0 NOBLE ACE 3.2% 31.73 12
11 0 M UNICORN 2.9% 34.64 11
12 0 SUPER MAGIC 2.1% 48.37 14
13 0 DINOSAUR BOY 1.2% 83.18 7
14 0 AMAZING TRAVIS 0.8% 129.89 8
ARIELGOLDEN SAMURAISOLAR PARTNERFLAMINGO TRILLION — wonD STARCASA LEGENDHERO ICONSHARPEN BRIGHTBRILLIANT PIONEERNOBLE ACEM UNICORNSUPER MAGICDINOSAUR BOYAMAZING TRAVIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 99.5

PLACE

4 17

7 30

12 20.5

QUINELLA

7,12 249.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 70

4,12 47

7,12 85

FORECAST

7,12 905

TIERCE

7,12,4 2,433

TRIO

4,7,12 261

FIRST 4

1,4,7,12 583

QUARTET

7,12,4,1 18,889

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 33.5

A1 —

A2 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,9/4,7,12 89,691

5TH DOUBLE

1/7 1,389

1/12 91.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,9,13/1,5,9/Any Combination 377,290