Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 16:43
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. WINNER METHOD, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/2, with EXCELLENT FIGHTER second and FLYING ACE third. The 2.4 favourite HAPPY GOLF finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | WINNER METHOD B1/TT 1.10.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 1 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 11 | 4.1 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 1 | FLYING ACE B H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 4.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | EXCELLENT DADDY TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 8 | 139.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | BUNDLE OF CHARM K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | SOLID SHALAA K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 10 | 99.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 12 | CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 3 | 17.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 9 | HAPPY GOLF Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 2 | 2.4 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | THE RUNNER V C L Cheung · K H Ting | C L Cheung | K H Ting | 7 | 133.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | REVE PARISIEN M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 9 | 17.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | MERCHANT PRINCE B1/H1/TT1 B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | 6 | 109.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | THESIS CP/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 12 | 30.0 | 9-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HAPPY GOLF | 32.9% | 3.04 | 8 |
| 2 | 4 | EXCELLENT FIGHTER | 21.7% | 4.62 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | FLYING ACE | 15.2% | 6.60 | 3 |
| 4 | 3 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 7.9% | 12.70 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | WINNER METHOD | 4.7% | 21.42 | 1 |
| 6 | 5 | THESIS | 3.7% | 27.32 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | CALIFORNIA VANES | 3.4% | 29.63 | 7 |
| 8 | 7 | MERCHANT PRINCE | 3.2% | 31.61 | 11 |
| 9 | 6 | REVE PARISIEN | 3.0% | 33.09 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | THE RUNNER | 2.5% | 39.29 | 9 |
| 11 | 10 | EXCELLENT DADDY | 1.0% | 102.20 | 4 |
| 12 | 8 | SOLID SHALAA | 1.0% | 103.68 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 115
PLACE
1 17
2 26
4 15
QUINELLA
2,4 192
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 64
1,4 33.5
2,4 60.5
FORECAST
2,4 384
TIERCE
2,4,1 1,669
TRIO
1,2,4 201
FIRST 4
1,2,4,10 4,282
QUARTET
2,4,1,10 66,964
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 48
A1 —
4TH DOUBLE TRIO
2,3,12/1,2,4 8,055
7TH DOUBLE
12/2 1,017.5
12/4 63