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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 15:02

Race 5

Class 4 YIELDING 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. STORM LEGEND, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/2, with SPEED FAY FAY second and NORTHERN BEAST third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite SPEED FAY FAY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.23.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly 1.23.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes 10 8.6 2-1/2
2 9 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly B Z Purton · A T Millard 9 4.6 2-1/2
3 5 NORTHERN BEAST Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 6 17.0 2-3/4
4 12 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B K Teetan · D A Hayes 8 8.3 3
5 2 CHARMANDER B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 1 10.0 3-1/2
6 8 BROTHER PEARL Closed strongly B R Maia · C H Yip 14 23.0 3-3/4
7 11 SINGAPORE SPIRIT B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 12 23.0 4-3/4
8 13 COLONEL Led early V B Avdulla · P F Yiu 5 11.0 5
9 7 GOOD BOY Closed strongly B/H K C Leung · P C Ng 11 36.0 5-1/4
10 4 LUCKY PLANET SR/XB L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 14.0 5-1/2
11 14 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT A Badel · F C Lor 2 6.9 5-1/2
12 6 TURTLE AGAIN Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · T P Yung 13 53.0 7
13 10 WIN WIN B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 6.0 10-1/4
14 3 DIAMOND WINNER B1 A Hamelin · J Size 4 98.0 11-1/2
— 0 MAGIC TORONADO L Currie · W Y So — — —

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. STORM LEGEND—2. SPEED FAY FAY+2.5L3. NORTHERN BEAST+2.75L4. STRONGEST BOY+3L5. CHARMANDER+3.5L6. BROTHER PEARL+3.75L7. SINGAPORE SPIRIT+4.75L8. COLONEL+5L9. GOOD BOY+5.25L10. LUCKY PLANET+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NORTHERN BEAST (14.3%) finished 3rd — the winner STORM LEGEND was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 NORTHERN BEAST 14.3% 6.99 3
2 9 SPEED FAY FAY 13.9% 7.19 2
3 2 CHARMANDER 9.3% 10.79 5
4 10 WIN WIN 8.8% 11.40 13
5 1 STORM LEGEND 8.7% 11.44 1
6 14 PEAK TO PEAK 8.1% 12.27 11
7 13 COLONEL 7.8% 12.78 8
8 4 LUCKY PLANET 7.6% 13.15 10
9 12 STRONGEST BOY 7.4% 13.49 4
10 7 GOOD BOY 4.0% 24.86 9
11 11 SINGAPORE SPIRIT 3.4% 29.24 7
12 6 TURTLE AGAIN 2.7% 37.12 12
13 8 BROTHER PEARL 2.5% 40.52 6
14 3 DIAMOND WINNER 1.4% 70.93 14
NORTHERN BEASTSPEED FAY FAYCHARMANDERWIN WINSTORM LEGEND — wonPEAK TO PEAKCOLONELLUCKY PLANETSTRONGEST BOYGOOD BOYSINGAPORE SPIRITTURTLE AGAINBROTHER PEARLDIAMOND WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 86.5

PLACE

1 28

5 55

9 17.5

QUINELLA

1,9 177

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 234

1,9 69

5,9 158

FORECAST

1,9 619

TIERCE

1,9,5 6,158

TRIO

1,5,9 1,016

FIRST 4

1,5,9,12 2,016

QUARTET

1,9,5,12 53,404

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/9/1 13,250

1/9/9 967

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 20

A1 —

4TH DOUBLE

9/1 975

9/9 120

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