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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 14:33

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1000m Course C 12 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SPARKLING KNIGHT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with STRATHPEFFER second and SPARKLING DOLPHIN third. The 3.4 favourite MIDAS TOUCH finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SPARKLING KNIGHT B- 0.56.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip 11 10.0 SH
2 13 STRATHPEFFER H-/SR-/B1 K Teetan · D J Whyte 12 48.0 SH
3 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN H T Mo · Y S Tsui 2 19.0 3
4 5 ALWAYS AWESOME H Bowman · D J Hall 3 6.5 3-1/4
5 7 MIDAS TOUCH E1 Z Purton · J Size 9 3.4 3-3/4
6 6 HIGH PERCENTAGE H Bentley · T P Yung 1 19.0 4
7 11 ORIENTAL SPIRIT B1 L Currie · D A Hayes 5 63.0 5-1/4
8 3 INNOCONSTRUCTION B-/TT B Avdulla · K W Lui 8 5.1 5-3/4
9 2 HEALTHY HEALTHY H/TT C L Chau · P C Ng 4 8.0 6-1/4
10 12 TRIUMPHANT RETURN CP/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 10 10.0 6-1/4
11 10 HAPPY HORSE H/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 6 19.0 6-1/2
12 1 LUCKY FUN V- K C Leung · L Ho 7 15.0 10-3/4
8 STERLING WONGCHOY E C W Wong · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING KNIGHT2. STRATHPEFFER+0.1L3. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+3L4. ALWAYS AWESOME+3.25L5. MIDAS TOUCH+3.75L6. HIGH PERCENTAGE+4L7. ORIENTAL SPIRIT+5.25L8. INNOCONSTRUCTION+5.75L9. HEALTHY HEALTHY+6.25L10. TRIUMPHANT RETURN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MIDAS TOUCH (23.1%) finished 5th — the winner SPARKLING KNIGHT was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 MIDAS TOUCH 23.1% 4.33 5
2 5 ALWAYS AWESOME 15.4% 6.51 4
3 2 HEALTHY HEALTHY 12.5% 8.01 9
4 4 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 10.4% 9.64 3
5 3 INNOCONSTRUCTION 8.7% 11.44 8
6 10 HAPPY HORSE 7.1% 13.99 11
7 12 TRIUMPHANT RETURN 5.9% 16.94 10
8 6 HIGH PERCENTAGE 4.4% 22.71 6
9 13 STRATHPEFFER 4.0% 24.90 2
10 9 SPARKLING KNIGHT 3.7% 26.79 1
11 1 LUCKY FUN 3.3% 30.73 12
12 11 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 1.5% 65.86 7
MIDAS TOUCHALWAYS AWESOMEHEALTHY HEALTHYSPARKLING DOLPHININNOCONSTRUCTIONHAPPY HORSETRIUMPHANT RETURNHIGH PERCENTAGESTRATHPEFFERSPARKLING KNIGHT — wonLUCKY FUNORIENTAL SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 105

PLACE

4 52.5

9 33.5

13 102

QUINELLA

9,13 1,955

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 256

4,13 848.5

9,13 523.5

FORECAST

9,13 3,002

TIERCE

9,13,4 42,341

TRIO

4,9,13 8,761

FIRST 4

4,5,9,13 15,218

QUARTET

9,13,4,5 370,821

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,11/4,9,13 1,382,689

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 25

A1

3RD DOUBLE

1/9 800.5

1/13 529