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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 14:04

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO YIELDING 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. PULSAR STRIDER, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with DUBLIN STAR second and MULTISUPER third. The 2.0 favourite MULTISUPER finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 PULSAR STRIDER 1.10.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 10 5.4 N
2 11 DUBLIN STAR B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 11 28.0 N
3 4 MULTISUPER H Bowman · P F Yiu 7 2.0 1/2
4 8 GLUCK RACER V-/B2 H Bentley · L Ho 1 8.3 1-1/4
5 2 PINS PRINCE H/P/TT A Badel · J Size 4 44.0 2
6 6 PUBLICIST B-/V1 K C Leung · P C Ng 9 11.0 2-1/2
7 10 JOYFUL GENIUS B1 L Ferraris · D J Hall 8 9.7 4
8 7 RATTAN WORLD XB-/B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 53.0 4-1/4
9 3 LUCKY QUALITY E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 50.0 5-1/4
10 5 PO ON WAY M Chadwick · K H Ting 5 9.1 8-1/2
11 12 JAZZ WITH DRAGON B L Currie · D A Hayes 3 150.0 11-1/2
12 9 CHILL WAY H/TT1 C L Chau · W Y So 12 94.0 30-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PULSAR STRIDER2. DUBLIN STAR+0.05L3. MULTISUPER+0.5L4. GLUCK RACER+1.25L5. PINS PRINCE+2L6. PUBLICIST+2.5L7. JOYFUL GENIUS+4L8. RATTAN WORLD+4.25L9. LUCKY QUALITY+5.25L10. PO ON WAY+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MULTISUPER (26.1%) finished 3rd — the winner PULSAR STRIDER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MULTISUPER 26.1% 3.84 3
2 1 PULSAR STRIDER 19.5% 5.14 1
3 5 PO ON WAY 14.7% 6.79 10
4 8 GLUCK RACER 8.1% 12.39 4
5 10 JOYFUL GENIUS 7.1% 14.14 7
6 6 PUBLICIST 6.9% 14.41 6
7 2 PINS PRINCE 5.4% 18.45 5
8 11 DUBLIN STAR 4.6% 21.61 2
9 3 LUCKY QUALITY 2.7% 37.16 9
10 9 CHILL WAY 2.3% 43.56 12
11 7 RATTAN WORLD 1.6% 60.73 8
12 12 JAZZ WITH DRAGON 1.0% 99.97 11
MULTISUPERPULSAR STRIDER — wonPO ON WAYGLUCK RACERJOYFUL GENIUSPUBLICISTPINS PRINCEDUBLIN STARLUCKY QUALITYCHILL WAYRATTAN WORLDJAZZ WITH DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 54.5

PLACE

1 18.5

4 12

11 48.5

QUINELLA

1,11 658.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 26

1,11 181

4,11 91

FORECAST

1,11 922

TIERCE

1,11,4 3,476

TRIO

1,4,11 390

FIRST 4

1,4,8,11 433

QUARTET

1,11,4,8 14,794

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 200.5

6/11 130.5

3 PICK 1

A1 14.5

A2

A3