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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 17:20

Race 9

Class 3 YIELDING 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.24.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 BRAVE DREAMS Closed strongly TT 1.24.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 4 13.0 1/2
2 0 CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 8.4 1/2
3 0 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB B Avdulla · J Size 6 14.0 3/4
4 0 E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man 9 40.0 3/4
5 0 SINBA Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 5.3 1-1/4
6 0 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V Y L Chung · F C Lor 1 13.0 2-1/4
7 0 ROMAN TURBO XB K Teetan · D J Hall 13 7.9 3-3/4
8 0 THE ROCK A Badel · C Fownes 2 42.0 4
9 0 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 3.9 4-1/4
10 0 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 7 9.5 4-1/2
11 0 BIG RED S Nakano · C W Chang 12 157.0 6
12 0 BEAUTY CHAMP H/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 7.6 6
13 0 BULLETPROOF H T Mo · P F Yiu 5 57.0 19-1/2
— 0 EURO ROCKS C Y Ho · K W Lui — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. BRAVE DREAMS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIA VOCE second and NOBLE WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite GOLDEN ARTIE finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRAVE DREAMS—2. CALIFORNIA VOCE+0.5L3. NOBLE WIN+0.75L4. E LEGEND+0.75L5. SINBA+1.25L6. MASSIVE ACTION+2.25L7. ROMAN TURBO+3.75L8. THE ROCK+4L9. GOLDEN ARTIE+4.25L10. BEAUTY FIT+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN ARTIE (16.9%) finished 9th — the winner BRAVE DREAMS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOLDEN ARTIE 16.9% 5.92 9
2 0 SINBA 16.4% 6.09 5
3 0 BRAVE DREAMS 9.6% 10.36 1
4 0 ROMAN TURBO 8.0% 12.51 7
5 0 MASSIVE ACTION 7.4% 13.51 6
6 0 CALIFORNIA VOCE 7.3% 13.71 2
7 0 BEAUTY CHAMP 7.2% 13.95 12
8 0 E LEGEND 6.9% 14.46 4
9 0 NOBLE WIN 6.3% 15.97 3
10 0 BEAUTY FIT 5.1% 19.42 10
11 0 BULLETPROOF 4.2% 23.92 13
12 0 THE ROCK 2.9% 34.93 8
13 0 BIG RED 1.8% 55.22 11
GOLDEN ARTIESINBABRAVE DREAMS — wonROMAN TURBOMASSIVE ACTIONCALIFORNIA VOCEBEAUTY CHAMPE LEGENDNOBLE WINBEAUTY FITBULLETPROOFTHE ROCKBIG RED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 134.5

PLACE

2 26

5 35

13 46.5

QUINELLA

2,5 474.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 137.5

2,13 199

5,13 329

FORECAST

5,2 988

TIERCE

5,2,13 11,876

TRIO

2,5,13 2,324

FIRST 4

2,5,7,13 11,154

QUARTET

5,2,13,7 228,685

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 36.5

A3 —

A1 —

8TH DOUBLE

2/2 139.5

2/5 1,565.5