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Sha Tin · 2023-05-13 · 17:20

Race 9

Class 3 YIELDING 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-05-13 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on YIELDING going. BRAVE DREAMS, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1/2, with CALIFORNIA VOCE second and NOBLE WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.9 favourite GOLDEN ARTIE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.24.24
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 BRAVE DREAMS Closed strongly TT 1.24.24 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 4 13.0 1/2
2 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 8.4 1/2
3 13 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB B Avdulla · J Size 6 14.0 3/4
4 7 E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man 9 40.0 3/4
5 1 SINBA Closed strongly B-/CP1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 5.3 1-1/4
6 9 MASSIVE ACTION Led early SR/V Y L Chung · F C Lor 1 13.0 2-1/4
7 14 ROMAN TURBO XB K Teetan · D J Hall 13 7.9 3-3/4
8 4 THE ROCK A Badel · C Fownes 2 42.0 4
9 8 GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 3.9 4-1/4
10 3 BEAUTY FIT E/P A Hamelin · J Size 7 9.5 4-1/2
11 11 BIG RED S Nakano · C W Chang 12 157.0 6
12 6 BEAUTY CHAMP H/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 7.6 6
13 12 BULLETPROOF H T Mo · P F Yiu 5 57.0 19-1/2
10 EURO ROCKS C Y Ho · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BRAVE DREAMS2. CALIFORNIA VOCE+0.5L3. NOBLE WIN+0.75L4. E LEGEND+0.75L5. SINBA+1.25L6. MASSIVE ACTION+2.25L7. ROMAN TURBO+3.75L8. THE ROCK+4L9. GOLDEN ARTIE+4.25L10. BEAUTY FIT+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN ARTIE (16.9%) finished 9th — the winner BRAVE DREAMS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 GOLDEN ARTIE 16.9% 5.92 9
2 1 SINBA 16.4% 6.09 5
3 5 BRAVE DREAMS 9.6% 10.36 1
4 14 ROMAN TURBO 8.0% 12.51 7
5 9 MASSIVE ACTION 7.4% 13.51 6
6 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE 7.3% 13.71 2
7 6 BEAUTY CHAMP 7.2% 13.95 12
8 7 E LEGEND 6.9% 14.46 4
9 13 NOBLE WIN 6.3% 15.97 3
10 3 BEAUTY FIT 5.1% 19.42 10
11 12 BULLETPROOF 4.2% 23.92 13
12 4 THE ROCK 2.9% 34.93 8
13 11 BIG RED 1.8% 55.22 11
GOLDEN ARTIESINBABRAVE DREAMS — wonROMAN TURBOMASSIVE ACTIONCALIFORNIA VOCEBEAUTY CHAMPE LEGENDNOBLE WINBEAUTY FITBULLETPROOFTHE ROCKBIG RED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 134.5

PLACE

2 26

5 35

13 46.5

QUINELLA

2,5 474.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 137.5

2,13 199

5,13 329

FORECAST

5,2 988

TIERCE

5,2,13 11,876

TRIO

2,5,13 2,324

FIRST 4

2,5,7,13 11,154

QUARTET

5,2,13,7 228,685

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 36.5

A1

A3

8TH DOUBLE

2/2 139.5

2/5 1,565.5