Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 16:01

Race 1

Class 3 WET FAST 1800m 7 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on WET FAST going. ERIMO, ridden by A Badel and trained by J Size, won by SH, with ADEFILL second and PERFECT TEAM third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite ADEFILL finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.46.83

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	1	ERIMO Closed strongly B-/PC2 1.46.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	3	135 lb	3.2	SH
2	6	ADEFILL Closed strongly CP K Teetan · P F Yiu	K Teetan	P F Yiu	5	122 lb	2.8	SH
3	5	PERFECT TEAM Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	4	124 lb	5.5	N
4	3	SO WE JOY Closed strongly XB-/TT B Avdulla · C W Chang	B Avdulla	C W Chang	6	127 lb	9.0	1-1/2
5	8	SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui	Y L Chung	K W Lui	2	108 lb	16.0	2-1/2
6	7	NORDIC STAR TT C Y Ho · C S Shum	C Y Ho	C S Shum	1	120 lb	9.2	4-1/4
7	2	TIANCHI MONSTER Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	7	132 lb	11.0	5-1/2
—	4	FIERY DIAMOND L Hewitson · T P Yung	L Hewitson	T P Yung	—	126 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ADEFILL (23.8%) finished 2nd — the winner ERIMO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	6	ADEFILL	23.8%	4.20	2	2.8
2	1	ERIMO	22.4%	4.46	1	3.2
3	2	TIANCHI MONSTER	20.8%	4.80	7	11.0
4	5	PERFECT TEAM	13.5%	7.40	3	5.5
5	8	SKYEY SUPREME	7.6%	13.24	5	16.0
6	3	SO WE JOY	6.1%	16.35	4	9.0
7	7	NORDIC STAR	5.7%	17.41	6	9.2

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 32.5

PLACE

1 14

5 18.5

6 13

QUINELLA

1,6 46.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 45.5

1,6 20

5,6 32.5

FORECAST

1,6 87

TIERCE

1,6,5 325

TRIO

1,5,6 97

FIRST 4

1,3,5,6 110

QUARTET

1,6,5,3 1,289

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 24

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1800m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99