Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 17:02

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 8 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. DREAM WINNER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 2-1/2, with SUPER AXIOM second and METRO WARRIOR third. Victory came as the 1.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.52

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	DREAM WINNER 0.55.52 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	4	119 lb	1.1	2-1/2
2	6	SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui	M Chadwick	Y S Tsui	8	118 lb	23.0	2-1/2
3	4	METRO WARRIOR B Y L Chung · D A Hayes	Y L Chung	D A Hayes	3	120 lb	28.0	3-1/2
4	2	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B E C W Wong · P F Yiu	E C W Wong	P F Yiu	6	124 lb	16.0	3-1/2
5	7	VALIANT ELEGANCE B/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	5	118 lb	54.0	4-1/4
6	1	RUN RUN COOL PC H Bentley · F C Lor	H Bentley	F C Lor	7	135 lb	23.0	5-1/4
7	8	RED ELEGANCE XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards	K Teetan	J Richards	1	117 lb	8.3	5-1/4
8	3	BEAUTY TYCOON Z Purton · J Size	Z Purton	J Size	2	130 lb	28.0	7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick DREAM WINNER (37.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	DREAM WINNER	37.6%	2.66	1	1.1
2	8	RED ELEGANCE	21.5%	4.65	7	8.3
3	3	BEAUTY TYCOON	15.1%	6.62	8	28.0
4	2	PLEASANT ENDEAVOR	9.4%	10.62	4	16.0
5	6	SUPER AXIOM	5.9%	16.88	2	23.0
6	4	METRO WARRIOR	4.5%	22.04	3	28.0
7	1	RUN RUN COOL	4.0%	24.83	6	23.0
8	7	VALIANT ELEGANCE	1.9%	53.69	5	54.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 11.5

PLACE

4 28.5

5 10.1

6 35.5

QUINELLA

5,6 96

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 34.5

4,6 188.5

5,6 41.5

FORECAST

5,6 106

TIERCE

5,6,4 659

TRIO

4,5,6 280

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 214

QUARTET

5,6,4,2 2,007

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE

1/5 76.5

1/6 186.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 11.5

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