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Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 21:01

Race 9

Class 3 HEAVY 1200m Course C 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.10.70
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 PULSAR STRIDER 1.10.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · T P Yung 8 15.0 N
2 0 EXCELLENT FIGHTER B1/TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu 11 4.5 N
3 0 INVINCIBLE SAGE H Bowman · D J Hall 12 4.0 1/2
4 0 READY TO WIN XB/TT A Badel · F C Lor 3 13.0 1
5 0 LUCKY ENCOUNTER K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 2.8 1-1/2
6 0 SOLID SHALAA M F Poon · D A Hayes 5 89.0 1-3/4
8 0 PARTY WARRIOR H Z Purton · K W Lui 9 19.0 2
9 0 NISHIKADO P-/B1 M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 2 68.0 3-1/2
10 0 CHATEAU K C Leung · J Size 4 63.0 5-1/4
11 0 CAPITAL DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 15.0 5-3/4
12 0 BRILLIANT WAY P-/H/TT B Avdulla · J Size 6 22.0 5-3/4
— 0 BEAUTY CRESCENT TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz — 24.0 1-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on HEAVY going. PULSAR STRIDER, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by T P Yung, won by N, with EXCELLENT FIGHTER second and INVINCIBLE SAGE third. The 2.8 favourite LUCKY ENCOUNTER finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PULSAR STRIDER—2. EXCELLENT FIGHTER+0.05L3. INVINCIBLE SAGE+0.5L4. READY TO WIN+1L5. LUCKY ENCOUNTER+1.5L6. SOLID SHALAA+1.75L8. PARTY WARRIOR+2L9. NISHIKADO+3.5L10. CHATEAU+5.25L11. CAPITAL DELIGHT+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LUCKY ENCOUNTER (24.9%) finished 5th — the winner PULSAR STRIDER was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY ENCOUNTER 24.9% 4.02 5
2 0 EXCELLENT FIGHTER 20.2% 4.95 2
3 0 PARTY WARRIOR 13.2% 7.55 8
4 0 CAPITAL DELIGHT 12.7% 7.90 11
5 0 INVINCIBLE SAGE 9.2% 10.87 3
6 0 PULSAR STRIDER 6.0% 16.64 1
7 0 READY TO WIN 4.6% 21.91 4
8 0 BEAUTY CRESCENT 2.8% 35.43 —
9 0 BRILLIANT WAY 2.4% 41.42 12
10 0 SOLID SHALAA 1.9% 53.82 6
11 0 CHATEAU 1.5% 68.01 10
12 0 NISHIKADO 0.7% 152.94 9
LUCKY ENCOUNTEREXCELLENT FIGHTERPARTY WARRIORCAPITAL DELIGHTINVINCIBLE SAGEPULSAR STRIDER — wonREADY TO WINBEAUTY CRESCENTBRILLIANT WAYSOLID SHALAACHATEAUNISHIKADO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 154.5

PLACE

3 17

6 14.5

9 37.5

QUINELLA

6,9 227.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 35.5

3,9 87

6,9 77

FORECAST

9,6 609

TIERCE

9,6,3 3,075

TRIO

3,6,9 301

FIRST 4

3,6,9,10 802

QUARTET

9,6,3,10 23,441

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 38

A1 —

8TH DOUBLE

8/6 58

8/9 1,289