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Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 17:31

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H-/B1/TT 1.22.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K W Lui 1 15.0 SH
2 0 TRAVEL GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 28.0 SH
3 0 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly H Bowman · C H Yip 3 4.3 3/4
4 0 APEX TOP Led early B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 14 4.9 1-1/4
5 0 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 40.0 2-1/4
6 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V E C W Wong · P F Yiu 8 8.5 3
7 0 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 2 13.0 5-1/4
8 0 INSPIRING CITY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 10.0 5-1/2
9 0 YOUNG SPARKLE B K Teetan · A T Millard 4 7.3 6-1/2
10 0 NORDIC COMBINED Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 22.0 7-3/4
11 0 GREEN LASER B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 11.0 7-3/4
12 0 GIVE WAY PLEASE B/H/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 6 17.0 8
13 0 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 5 40.0 8
14 0 THIS IS CHARISMA CP/TT B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 76.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER OF LUCK, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with TRAVEL GLORY second and MAXIMIZE HEART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite MAXIMIZE HEART finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER OF LUCK—2. TRAVEL GLORY+0.1L3. MAXIMIZE HEART+0.75L4. APEX TOP+1.25L5. SMART BEAUTY+2.25L6. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+3L7. PEAK TO PEAK+5.25L8. INSPIRING CITY+5.5L9. YOUNG SPARKLE+6.5L10. NORDIC COMBINED+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GREEN LASER (17.9%) finished 11th — the winner MASTER OF LUCK was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GREEN LASER 17.9% 5.58 11
2 0 MAXIMIZE HEART 13.7% 7.30 3
3 0 PEAK TO PEAK 11.0% 9.09 7
4 0 YOUNG SPARKLE 10.8% 9.26 9
5 0 APEX TOP 8.8% 11.38 4
6 0 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 6.7% 15.01 6
7 0 INSPIRING CITY 6.2% 16.20 8
8 0 GIVE WAY PLEASE 5.3% 18.95 12
9 0 MASTER OF LUCK 4.8% 20.98 1
10 0 NORDIC COMBINED 3.9% 25.48 10
11 0 TURTLE AGAIN 3.9% 25.71 13
12 0 TRAVEL GLORY 3.4% 29.34 2
13 0 SMART BEAUTY 2.2% 44.66 5
14 0 THIS IS CHARISMA 1.4% 70.07 14
GREEN LASERMAXIMIZE HEARTPEAK TO PEAKYOUNG SPARKLEAPEX TOPWINWIN THIRTYTHREEINSPIRING CITYGIVE WAY PLEASEMASTER OF LUCK — wonNORDIC COMBINEDTURTLE AGAINTRAVEL GLORYSMART BEAUTYTHIS IS CHARISMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 151.5

PLACE

3 17.5

6 39

13 65

QUINELLA

6,13 1,956.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 106

3,13 240

6,13 473

FORECAST

6,13 2,957

TIERCE

6,13,3 24,598

TRIO

3,6,13 3,044

FIRST 4

3,6,9,13 3,669

QUARTET

6,13,3,9 113,744

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/3,6,13 51,065

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 20

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

5/6 95

5/13 51