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Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 17:31

Race 4

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MASTER OF LUCK, ridden by H Bentley and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with TRAVEL GLORY second and MAXIMIZE HEART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite MAXIMIZE HEART finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly H-/B1/TT 1.22.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · K W Lui 1 15.0 SH
2 13 TRAVEL GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 12 28.0 SH
3 3 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly H Bowman · C H Yip 3 4.3 3/4
4 9 APEX TOP Led early B L Ferraris · D J Whyte 14 4.9 1-1/4
5 7 SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 7 40.0 2-1/4
6 1 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly V E C W Wong · P F Yiu 8 8.5 3
7 4 PEAK TO PEAK B/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 2 13.0 5-1/4
8 10 INSPIRING CITY Closed strongly L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 10.0 5-1/2
9 11 YOUNG SPARKLE B K Teetan · A T Millard 4 7.3 6-1/2
10 5 NORDIC COMBINED Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 13 22.0 7-3/4
11 8 GREEN LASER B/TT Z Purton · W Y So 10 11.0 7-3/4
12 14 GIVE WAY PLEASE B/H/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting 6 17.0 8
13 2 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT K C Leung · T P Yung 5 40.0 8
14 12 THIS IS CHARISMA CP/TT B Avdulla · D J Hall 9 76.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MASTER OF LUCK2. TRAVEL GLORY+0.1L3. MAXIMIZE HEART+0.75L4. APEX TOP+1.25L5. SMART BEAUTY+2.25L6. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+3L7. PEAK TO PEAK+5.25L8. INSPIRING CITY+5.5L9. YOUNG SPARKLE+6.5L10. NORDIC COMBINED+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GREEN LASER (17.9%) finished 11th — the winner MASTER OF LUCK was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 GREEN LASER 17.9% 5.58 11
2 3 MAXIMIZE HEART 13.7% 7.30 3
3 4 PEAK TO PEAK 11.0% 9.09 7
4 11 YOUNG SPARKLE 10.8% 9.26 9
5 9 APEX TOP 8.8% 11.38 4
6 1 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 6.7% 15.01 6
7 10 INSPIRING CITY 6.2% 16.20 8
8 14 GIVE WAY PLEASE 5.3% 18.95 12
9 6 MASTER OF LUCK 4.8% 20.98 1
10 5 NORDIC COMBINED 3.9% 25.48 10
11 2 TURTLE AGAIN 3.9% 25.71 13
12 13 TRAVEL GLORY 3.4% 29.34 2
13 7 SMART BEAUTY 2.2% 44.66 5
14 12 THIS IS CHARISMA 1.4% 70.07 14
GREEN LASERMAXIMIZE HEARTPEAK TO PEAKYOUNG SPARKLEAPEX TOPWINWIN THIRTYTHREEINSPIRING CITYGIVE WAY PLEASEMASTER OF LUCK — wonNORDIC COMBINEDTURTLE AGAINTRAVEL GLORYSMART BEAUTYTHIS IS CHARISMA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 151.5

PLACE

3 17.5

6 39

13 65

QUINELLA

6,13 1,956.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 106

3,13 240

6,13 473

FORECAST

6,13 2,957

TIERCE

6,13,3 24,598

TRIO

3,6,13 3,044

FIRST 4

3,6,9,13 3,669

QUARTET

6,13,3,9 113,744

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,6/3,6,13 51,065

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 20

3RD DOUBLE

5/6 95

5/13 51