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Sha Tin · 2023-06-10 · 18:03

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1800m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-06-10 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. TURQUOISE ALPHA, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by HD, with EL VALIENTE second and RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite AMAZING TEENS finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.48.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB 1.48.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 7 9.2 HD
2 11 EL VALIENTE Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · C Fownes 9 11.0 HD
3 2 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · C W Chang 1 10.0 3-1/2
4 4 RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 4 96.0 3-3/4
5 3 MISSION BRAVO H/V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 10 4.6 4
6 1 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT H Bowman · J Size 3 3.1 5-3/4
7 8 SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB A Badel · D J Hall 12 21.0 7-1/4
8 10 COLOURFUL BARON Led early B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 8 9.7 7-1/4
9 7 KYRUS UNICORN B L Hewitson · D J Hall 6 8.4 12-1/4
10 9 LUCKY VICTOR B/TT C Wong · K H Ting 2 15.0 12-1/4
11 12 PERFECT ROCK M L Yeung · Y S Tsui 11 81.0 20-3/4
12 5 ULTRA EXPRESS B/TT K C Leung · A T Millard 5 26.0 22-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURQUOISE ALPHA2. EL VALIENTE+0.2L3. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3.5L4. RELIABLE PROFIT+3.75L5. MISSION BRAVO+4L6. AMAZING TEENS+5.75L7. SUN OF MAKFI+7.25L8. COLOURFUL BARON+7.25L9. KYRUS UNICORN+12.25L10. LUCKY VICTOR+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick AMAZING TEENS (27.2%) finished 6th — the winner TURQUOISE ALPHA was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 AMAZING TEENS 27.2% 3.67 6
2 11 EL VALIENTE 11.5% 8.71 2
3 10 COLOURFUL BARON 11.3% 8.84 8
4 9 LUCKY VICTOR 10.4% 9.58 10
5 3 MISSION BRAVO 9.7% 10.27 5
6 2 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 7.6% 13.08 3
7 6 TURQUOISE ALPHA 6.6% 15.11 1
8 8 SUN OF MAKFI 6.4% 15.63 7
9 7 KYRUS UNICORN 5.2% 19.34 9
10 5 ULTRA EXPRESS 1.7% 57.90 12
11 12 PERFECT ROCK 1.4% 72.44 11
12 4 RELIABLE PROFIT 0.9% 113.61 4
AMAZING TEENSEL VALIENTECOLOURFUL BARONLUCKY VICTORMISSION BRAVORIGHTEOUS DOCTRINETURQUOISE ALPHA — wonSUN OF MAKFIKYRUS UNICORNULTRA EXPRESSPERFECT ROCKRELIABLE PROFIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 92

PLACE

2 25.5

6 28.5

11 30.5

QUINELLA

6,11 550

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 151

2,11 131.5

6,11 146

FORECAST

6,11 846

TIERCE

6,11,2 7,638

TRIO

2,6,11 1,635

FIRST 4

2,4,6,11 26,759

QUARTET

6,11,2,4 332,685

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

5/6/6 1,270

5/6/11 221

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 25

4TH DOUBLE

6/6 1,005

6/11 180