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Sha Tin · 2023-07-09 · 16:02

Race 1

Griffin GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-09 was Griffin over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. KA YING VICTORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-1/4, with RUBY SAILING second and SUPER BONUS third. Victory came as the 1.4 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 KA YING VICTORY 1.09.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 4 1.4 2-1/4
2 10 RUBY SAILING B Avdulla · K L Man 2 4.6 2-1/4
3 2 SUPER BONUS B Y L Chung · P C Ng 6 15.0 2-1/2
4 6 JOYFUL PROSPERITY H Bowman · C W Chang 10 34.0 4-1/4
5 5 HOLY LAKE XB H Bentley · K W Lui 12 22.0 4-1/4
6 7 MANAGEMENT HEART XB1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 17.0 5-1/2
7 8 E GLORY A Badel · K L Man 3 199.0 6
8 1 CHANCHENG GLORY XB L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 17.0 7-3/4
9 9 GALLANT VALOUR K Teetan · A T Millard 8 58.0 8
10 4 HAPPIHOOD B M Chadwick · P C Ng 5 158.0 8
11 12 TELECOM DRAGON C L Chau · C H Yip 7 219.0 9-3/4
12 11 SONIC BOOM TT1 L Ferraris · K H Ting 9 58.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING VICTORY2. RUBY SAILING+2.25L3. SUPER BONUS+2.5L4. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+4.25L5. HOLY LAKE+4.25L6. MANAGEMENT HEART+5.5L7. E GLORY+6L8. CHANCHENG GLORY+7.75L9. GALLANT VALOUR+8L10. HAPPIHOOD+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick KA YING VICTORY (46.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 KA YING VICTORY 46.9% 2.13 1
2 10 RUBY SAILING 13.2% 7.56 2
3 1 CHANCHENG GLORY 11.8% 8.50 8
4 7 MANAGEMENT HEART 5.2% 19.06 6
5 2 SUPER BONUS 5.1% 19.69 3
6 6 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 3.9% 25.94 4
7 11 SONIC BOOM 3.9% 25.95 12
8 5 HOLY LAKE 3.7% 26.69 5
9 9 GALLANT VALOUR 3.7% 27.02 9
10 4 HAPPIHOOD 1.3% 78.38 10
11 8 E GLORY 0.7% 134.04 7
12 12 TELECOM DRAGON 0.6% 158.88 11
KA YING VICTORY — wonRUBY SAILINGCHANCHENG GLORYMANAGEMENT HEARTSUPER BONUSJOYFUL PROSPERITYSONIC BOOMHOLY LAKEGALLANT VALOURHAPPIHOODE GLORYTELECOM DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 14.5

PLACE

2 25

3 11.5

10 13.5

QUINELLA

3,10 27

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 38.5

2,10 69

3,10 14.5

FORECAST

3,10 41

TIERCE

3,10,2 175

TRIO

2,3,10 82

FIRST 4

2,3,6,10 298

QUARTET

3,10,2,6 1,884

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3