Sha Tin · 2023-07-09 · 20:43
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-09 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HELIOS EXPRESS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with ACE ONE second and BEAUTY GLORY third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HELIOS EXPRESS 1.08.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 4 | 1.3 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | ACE ONE B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 15.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 2 | 20.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 12 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE H/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 7 | 7.8 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | READY TO WIN XB/CP2/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 8 | 20.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B M Dee · K L Man | M Dee | K L Man | 10 | 51.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | SEIZING THE MOMENT B L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 9 | 84.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | GORGEOUS VITALITY CP M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 1 | 59.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | KOKUSHI MUSOU B/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 75.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | I CAN C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 3 | 51.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | EURO ROCKS TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 12.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 12 | 6 | GALLANT CROWN B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 12 | 141.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | HELIOS EXPRESS | 52.5% | 1.90 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | ACE ONE | 7.7% | 13.03 | 2 |
| 3 | 9 | READY TO WIN | 7.4% | 13.45 | 5 |
| 4 | 5 | EURO ROCKS | 7.3% | 13.62 | 11 |
| 5 | 12 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE | 6.1% | 16.49 | 4 |
| 6 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 4.3% | 23.34 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | GORGEOUS VITALITY | 3.4% | 29.49 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | SEIZING THE MOMENT | 3.0% | 33.88 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | GALLANT CROWN | 2.9% | 34.66 | 12 |
| 10 | 7 | I CAN | 2.3% | 43.96 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | BEAUTY GLORY | 2.0% | 49.97 | 3 |
| 12 | 11 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 1.2% | 86.90 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 13
PLACE
1 10.1
3 21
4 38.5
QUINELLA
1,3 54
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 24.5
1,4 44.5
3,4 153.5
FORECAST
1,3 51
TIERCE
1,3,4 468
TRIO
1,3,4 238
FIRST 4
1,3,4,12 253
QUARTET
1,3,4,12 2,257
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 13
9TH DOUBLE
3/1 34.5
3/3 57