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Sha Tin · 2023-07-09 · 19:07

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOLDEN SAMURAI Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 3.1 1/2
2 0 NATURAL GOLD SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 4.2 1/2
3 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 3 37.0 1-3/4
4 0 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B1 H Bowman · C W Chang 8 6.4 2-1/4
5 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 1 8.3 2-1/2
6 0 SMART LEADER Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 43.0 2-3/4
7 0 SO AWESOME B/TT A Badel · K L Man 4 11.0 2-3/4
8 0 ONE HEART ONE CP-/B1/TT M Dee · D A Hayes 5 9.2 4-1/4
9 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 110.0 4-3/4
10 0 JAZZ CLUB Led early K H Chan · L Ho 14 96.0 6-1/2
11 0 PROUD DRAGON Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 7 31.0 6-3/4
12 0 ART LITE Closed strongly CP/H1/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 12 170.0 8
13 0 HO HO STAR Z Purton · C H Yip 10 12.0 11
— 0 GANG OF BROTHERS K Teetan · P C Ng — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN SAMURAI, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with NATURAL GOLD second and IMPERIAL MAGEE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN SAMURAI—2. NATURAL GOLD+0.5L3. IMPERIAL MAGEE+1.75L4. LOST CHILD+2.25L5. LIGHT OF WANSHI+2.5L6. SMART LEADER+2.75L7. SO AWESOME+2.75L8. ONE HEART ONE+4.25L9. ATOMIC BEAUTY+4.75L10. JAZZ CLUB+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN SAMURAI (22.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOLDEN SAMURAI 22.2% 4.51 1
2 0 HO HO STAR 18.8% 5.32 13
3 0 IMPERIAL MAGEE 9.6% 10.39 3
4 0 NATURAL GOLD 9.5% 10.50 2
5 0 LOST CHILD 9.3% 10.76 4
6 0 LIGHT OF WANSHI 7.4% 13.56 5
7 0 SO AWESOME 5.6% 17.79 7
8 0 ONE HEART ONE 5.6% 17.92 8
9 0 SMART LEADER 4.4% 22.80 6
10 0 PROUD DRAGON 3.3% 30.17 11
11 0 ATOMIC BEAUTY 2.2% 46.31 9
12 0 JAZZ CLUB 1.4% 71.45 10
13 0 ART LITE 0.8% 129.62 12
GOLDEN SAMURAI — wonHO HO STARIMPERIAL MAGEENATURAL GOLDLOST CHILDLIGHT OF WANSHISO AWESOMEONE HEART ONESMART LEADERPROUD DRAGONATOMIC BEAUTYJAZZ CLUBART LITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 31.5

PLACE

1 63

4 16

9 15.5

QUINELLA

4,9 98.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 181.5

1,9 210

4,9 41

FORECAST

4,9 144

TIERCE

4,9,1 2,819

TRIO

1,4,9 866

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 812

QUARTET

4,9,1,6 12,652

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 25

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/1>3,4,9 8,375

6TH DOUBLE

2/3,4 53

2/9 28

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,8/2,4,6/1>3,4,9 7,985,725

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,8/2,4,6/Any Combination 9,989