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Sha Tin · 2023-07-09 · 19:07

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-09 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GOLDEN SAMURAI, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with NATURAL GOLD second and IMPERIAL MAGEE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 GOLDEN SAMURAI Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 3.1 1/2
2 9 NATURAL GOLD SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 4.2 1/2
3 1 IMPERIAL MAGEE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 3 37.0 1-3/4
4 6 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B1 H Bowman · C W Chang 8 6.4 2-1/4
5 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 1 8.3 2-1/2
6 13 SMART LEADER Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 43.0 2-3/4
7 10 SO AWESOME B/TT A Badel · K L Man 4 11.0 2-3/4
8 14 ONE HEART ONE CP-/B1/TT M Dee · D A Hayes 5 9.2 4-1/4
9 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 110.0 4-3/4
10 11 JAZZ CLUB Led early K H Chan · L Ho 14 96.0 6-1/2
11 7 PROUD DRAGON Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes 7 31.0 6-3/4
12 12 ART LITE Closed strongly CP/H1/TT M L Yeung · J Richards 12 170.0 8
13 8 HO HO STAR Z Purton · C H Yip 10 12.0 11
3 GANG OF BROTHERS K Teetan · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOLDEN SAMURAI2. NATURAL GOLD+0.5L3. IMPERIAL MAGEE+1.75L4. LOST CHILD+2.25L5. LIGHT OF WANSHI+2.5L6. SMART LEADER+2.75L7. SO AWESOME+2.75L8. ONE HEART ONE+4.25L9. ATOMIC BEAUTY+4.75L10. JAZZ CLUB+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GOLDEN SAMURAI (22.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GOLDEN SAMURAI 22.2% 4.51 1
2 8 HO HO STAR 18.8% 5.32 13
3 1 IMPERIAL MAGEE 9.6% 10.39 3
4 9 NATURAL GOLD 9.5% 10.50 2
5 6 LOST CHILD 9.3% 10.76 4
6 2 LIGHT OF WANSHI 7.4% 13.56 5
7 10 SO AWESOME 5.6% 17.79 7
8 14 ONE HEART ONE 5.6% 17.92 8
9 13 SMART LEADER 4.4% 22.80 6
10 7 PROUD DRAGON 3.3% 30.17 11
11 5 ATOMIC BEAUTY 2.2% 46.31 9
12 11 JAZZ CLUB 1.4% 71.45 10
13 12 ART LITE 0.8% 129.62 12
GOLDEN SAMURAI — wonHO HO STARIMPERIAL MAGEENATURAL GOLDLOST CHILDLIGHT OF WANSHISO AWESOMEONE HEART ONESMART LEADERPROUD DRAGONATOMIC BEAUTYJAZZ CLUBART LITE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 31.5

PLACE

1 63

4 16

9 15.5

QUINELLA

4,9 98.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 181.5

1,9 210

4,9 41

FORECAST

4,9 144

TIERCE

4,9,1 2,819

TRIO

1,4,9 866

FIRST 4

1,4,6,9 812

QUARTET

4,9,1,6 12,652

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 25

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/1>3,4,9 8,375

6TH DOUBLE

2/3,4 53

2/9 28

TRIPLE TRIO

3,4,8/2,4,6/1>3,4,9 7,985,725

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,4,8/2,4,6/Any Combination 9,989