Sha Tin · 2023-07-09 · 17:32
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LUCKY QUALITY, ridden by K H Chan and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with ENDEARED second and FORTUNE WARRIOR third. The 2.7 favourite ENDEARED finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | LUCKY QUALITY 1.09.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 144.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 2 | ENDEARED XB Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 2.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 1 | FORTUNE WARRIOR CP/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng | Y L Chung | P C Ng | 7 | 65.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 11 | NOBLE ONE B/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | HERO ICON TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 8 | 5.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | GLUCK RACER H-/V- M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 11 | 19.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 1 | 7.4 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | PRINCE CHISWICK H Bowman · P F Yiu | H Bowman | P F Yiu | 12 | 29.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 7 | CHAMPION INSTINCT B1 M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 4 | 12.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | LAPRAS L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 6 | 15.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | TEAM SPIRIT B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 2 | 16.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 3 | TEXAS MOON B M Dee · T P Yung | M Dee | T P Yung | 10 | 37.0 | 12-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | ENDEARED | 20.2% | 4.96 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | NOBLE ONE | 19.1% | 5.24 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | PRINCE CHISWICK | 14.6% | 6.85 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | HERO ICON | 12.4% | 8.05 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | CHAMPION INSTINCT | 7.7% | 12.92 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | TEAM SPIRIT | 6.3% | 15.82 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | LAPRAS | 5.2% | 19.08 | 10 |
| 8 | 10 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 4.8% | 20.69 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | TEXAS MOON | 4.1% | 24.68 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | GLUCK RACER | 2.7% | 36.41 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | LUCKY QUALITY | 1.7% | 59.55 | 1 |
| 12 | 1 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 1.1% | 87.68 | 3 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 1,441
PLACE
1 160.5
2 14.5
9 265
QUINELLA
2,9 1,951.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 497.5
1,9 3,259
2,9 653.5
FORECAST
9,2 5,820
TIERCE
9,2,1 157,486
TRIO
1,2,9 18,162
FIRST 4
1,2,9,11 13,215
QUARTET
9,2,1,11 649,750
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 —
A3 30
3RD DOUBLE
10/2 57.5
10/9 9,009.5