Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 1
Class 5
YIELDING
1600m
Course A
11 runners
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on YIELDING going. DAZZLING FELLOW, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-3/4, with SPLENDID STAR second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite SPLENDID STAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly B/XB 1.35.32 H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 5 | 5.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 3.2 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui | C L Chau | Y S Tsui | 6 | 9.3 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 10 | 23.0 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly H-/B/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 11 | 9.3 | 7-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 4 | 11.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly B K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 7 | 21.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 13.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 1 | 8.5 | 11-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | FLYING GALLOP XB/B1/TT K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 8 | 52.0 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | RING BELLS Led early B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 3 | 7.8 | 17 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick HANG'S CHOICE (23.0%) finished 9th — the winner DAZZLING FELLOW was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | HANG'S CHOICE | 23.0% | 4.34 | 9 |
| 2 | 2 | DAZZLING FELLOW | 16.9% | 5.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | SPLENDID STAR | 16.6% | 6.04 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | DAILY BEAUTY | 10.5% | 9.55 | 7 |
| 5 | 3 | SUPERB DADDY | 10.4% | 9.63 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | RING BELLS | 6.9% | 14.56 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 4.7% | 21.30 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | STAR OF GLORY | 4.5% | 22.28 | 4 |
| 9 | 7 | SMART BEAUTY | 2.9% | 34.64 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | LEATHER MASTER | 2.6% | 38.67 | 6 |
| 11 | 9 | FLYING GALLOP | 1.2% | 85.29 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.