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Sha Tin · 2023-09-10

Race 1

Class 5 YIELDING 1600m Course A 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.35.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 DAZZLING FELLOW Closed strongly B/XB 1.35.32 H Bowman · D J Hall 5 5.7 2-3/4
2 0 SPLENDID STAR Closed strongly L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 3.2 2-3/4
3 0 SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · Y S Tsui 6 9.3 5-1/4
4 0 STAR OF GLORY B M F Poon · C W Chang 10 23.0 7
5 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY Closed strongly H-/B/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 11 9.3 7-3/4
6 0 LEATHER MASTER Closed strongly B Z Purton · T P Yung 4 11.0 8-1/4
7 0 DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly B K Teetan · C Fownes 7 21.0 9-3/4
8 0 SMART BEAUTY B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 9 13.0 11-1/2
9 0 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 8.5 11-3/4
10 0 FLYING GALLOP XB/B1/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 8 52.0 12
11 0 RING BELLS Led early B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 7.8 17

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 5 over 1600m, run on YIELDING going. DAZZLING FELLOW, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 2-3/4, with SPLENDID STAR second and SUPERB DADDY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite SPLENDID STAR finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DAZZLING FELLOW—2. SPLENDID STAR+2.75L3. SUPERB DADDY+5.25L4. STAR OF GLORY+7L5. STARSHIP EIGHTY+7.75L6. LEATHER MASTER+8.25L7. DAILY BEAUTY+9.75L8. SMART BEAUTY+11.5L9. HANG'S CHOICE+11.75L10. FLYING GALLOP+12L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HANG'S CHOICE (23.0%) finished 9th — the winner DAZZLING FELLOW was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HANG'S CHOICE 23.0% 4.34 9
2 0 DAZZLING FELLOW 16.9% 5.93 1
3 0 SPLENDID STAR 16.6% 6.04 2
4 0 DAILY BEAUTY 10.5% 9.55 7
5 0 SUPERB DADDY 10.4% 9.63 3
6 0 RING BELLS 6.9% 14.56 11
7 0 STARSHIP EIGHTY 4.7% 21.30 5
8 0 STAR OF GLORY 4.5% 22.28 4
9 0 SMART BEAUTY 2.9% 34.64 8
10 0 LEATHER MASTER 2.6% 38.67 6
11 0 FLYING GALLOP 1.2% 85.29 10
HANG'S CHOICEDAZZLING FELLOW — wonSPLENDID STARDAILY BEAUTYSUPERB DADDYRING BELLSSTARSHIP EIGHTYSTAR OF GLORYSMART BEAUTYLEATHER MASTERFLYING GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.