Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 3
Class 4
YIELDING
1200m
Course A
9 runners
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. READY TO WIN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with GREENWICH second and DRAGON DELIGHT third. The 1.6 favourite GREENWICH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | READY TO WIN CP/XB/TT 1.10.33 H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 7 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | GREENWICH TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 6 | 1.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 7 | DRAGON DELIGHT B L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 5 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | GOLDEN BULL XB/TT K Teetan · C S Shum | K Teetan | C S Shum | 1 | 5.8 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 9 | 35.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | THE GOOD DEAL SR1/TT Y L Chung · D J Whyte | Y L Chung | D J Whyte | 3 | 10.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | HO HO STAR TT1 A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 4 | 32.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | VANQUISHER PC/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 2 | 18.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SPEEDY SMARTIE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 63.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick GREENWICH (33.8%) finished 2nd — the winner READY TO WIN was rated #4.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | GREENWICH | 33.8% | 2.96 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | THE GOOD DEAL | 16.8% | 5.95 | 6 |
| 3 | 4 | GOLDEN BULL | 15.8% | 6.35 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | READY TO WIN | 11.8% | 8.48 | 1 |
| 5 | 7 | DRAGON DELIGHT | 9.1% | 11.00 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | LUCKY QUALITY | 5.1% | 19.66 | 5 |
| 7 | 8 | VANQUISHER | 3.5% | 28.48 | 8 |
| 8 | 6 | HO HO STAR | 3.1% | 32.08 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 1.0% | 97.42 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 2
Race 4 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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