Sha Tin · 2023-09-10

Race 4

Class 1 YIELDING 1200m Course A 6 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. VICTOR THE WINNER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/2, with LUCKY SWEYNESSE second and ADIOS third. The 1.2 favourite LUCKY SWEYNESSE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.87

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	VICTOR THE WINNER TT 1.09.87 K Teetan · C S Shum	K Teetan	C S Shum	5	115 lb	4.1	2-1/2
2	1	LUCKY SWEYNESSE Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	6	135 lb	1.2	2-1/2
3	4	ADIOS TT A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	2	115 lb	12.0	3-3/4
4	3	REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	1	116 lb	28.0	6
5	5	IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	4	108 lb	74.0	7-3/4
6	6	YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor	A Atzeni	F C Lor	3	116 lb	43.0	8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (44.0%) finished 2nd — the winner VICTOR THE WINNER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	LUCKY SWEYNESSE	44.0%	2.27	2	1.2
2	2	VICTOR THE WINNER	33.7%	2.97	1	4.1
3	4	ADIOS	8.5%	11.73	3	12.0
4	6	YOUTHFUL DEAL	6.7%	14.94	6	43.0
5	3	REWARDING TOGETHER	6.0%	16.73	4	28.0
6	5	IMA SINGLE MAN	1.1%	91.75	5	74.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends recorded for this race.

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