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Sha Tin · 2023-09-10

Race 4

Class 1 YIELDING 1200m Course A 6 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VICTOR THE WINNER TT 1.09.87 K Teetan · C S Shum 5 4.1 2-1/2
2 0 LUCKY SWEYNESSE Z Purton · K L Man 6 1.2 2-1/2
3 0 ADIOS TT A Badel · F C Lor 2 12.0 3-3/4
4 0 REWARDING TOGETHER B/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 1 28.0 6
5 0 IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 4 74.0 7-3/4
6 0 YOUTHFUL DEAL SR/TT A Atzeni · F C Lor 3 43.0 8-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. VICTOR THE WINNER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by 2-1/2, with LUCKY SWEYNESSE second and ADIOS third. The 1.2 favourite LUCKY SWEYNESSE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTOR THE WINNER—2. LUCKY SWEYNESSE+2.5L3. ADIOS+3.75L4. REWARDING TOGETHER+6L5. IMA SINGLE MAN+7.75L6. YOUTHFUL DEAL+8.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick LUCKY SWEYNESSE (44.0%) finished 2nd — the winner VICTOR THE WINNER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY SWEYNESSE 44.0% 2.27 2
2 0 VICTOR THE WINNER 33.7% 2.97 1
3 0 ADIOS 8.5% 11.73 3
4 0 YOUTHFUL DEAL 6.7% 14.94 6
5 0 REWARDING TOGETHER 6.0% 16.73 4
6 0 IMA SINGLE MAN 1.1% 91.75 5
LUCKY SWEYNESSEVICTOR THE WINNER — wonADIOSYOUTHFUL DEALREWARDING TOGETHERIMA SINGLE MAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

No dividends for this race in our data.