Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 5
Class 5
GOOD TO YIELDING
1200m
Course A
14 runners
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. I GIVE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with SMART LEADER second and FIGHTING STAR third. The 3.3 favourite SOARING TOWER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | I GIVE 1.10.17 C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 12 | 7.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 3 | SMART LEADER B/XB/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 5 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | FIGHTING STAR B A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 8.9 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 7 | SOARING TOWER B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 10 | 3.3 | 3 |
| 5 | 14 | VALHALLA XB/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 3 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | TURBO POWER A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 9 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | NOBLE BOYZ B/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 6 | 3.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 7 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | HAPPY MATADOR B/XB M Chadwick · C W Chang | M Chadwick | C W Chang | 13 | 57.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 8 | 99.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 4 | DASHING TRIUMPH CP-/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 2 | 46.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED B/H/TT L Currie · J Size | L Currie | J Size | 1 | 16.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 2 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 11 | 130.0 | 12 |
| 14 | 8 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT B K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 14 | 70.0 | 30-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick SOARING TOWER (16.3%) finished 4th — the winner I GIVE was rated #5.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SOARING TOWER | 16.3% | 6.15 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED | 14.1% | 7.10 | 12 |
| 3 | 14 | VALHALLA | 13.8% | 7.23 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | NOBLE BOYZ | 12.7% | 7.85 | 7 |
| 5 | 5 | I GIVE | 7.6% | 13.22 | 1 |
| 6 | 3 | SMART LEADER | 6.9% | 14.53 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | DAY DAY RICH | 5.9% | 17.08 | 8 |
| 8 | 8 | ORIENTAL SPIRIT | 4.6% | 21.65 | 14 |
| 9 | 10 | TURBO POWER | 4.6% | 21.97 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | DASHING TRIUMPH | 4.5% | 22.09 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | ALLOY KING | 3.6% | 27.80 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | FIGHTING STAR | 3.3% | 30.38 | 3 |
| 13 | 13 | HAPPY MATADOR | 1.4% | 69.67 | 9 |
| 14 | 2 | REGENCY HAPPY STAR | 0.8% | 129.73 | 13 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 4
Race 6 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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