Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 8
Class 4
GOOD TO YIELDING
1400m
Course A
10 runners
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. BLUE MARLIN, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with DIVINE ERA second and KASI FARASI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.1 favourite KASI FARASI finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly CP-/H 1.22.72 H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 6.4 | 1 |
| 2 | 9 | DIVINE ERA Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 10 | 27.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | KASI FARASI Closed strongly B H Bowman · C H Yip | H Bowman | C H Yip | 4 | 4.1 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | SPEEDSTAR B K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 3 | 23.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | JUNE PLANET Closed strongly V/TT B Avdulla · C Fownes | B Avdulla | C Fownes | 7 | 4.5 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | GOLDEN LINK E C W Wong · P F Yiu | E C W Wong | P F Yiu | 9 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | FORERUNNER Closed strongly C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 8 | 25.0 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | ARIEL Led early CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 5 | 4.7 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | SO AWESOME B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 6 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | ALL ARE MINE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 9.7 | 16-1/4 |
| — | 6 | LIGHT OF WANSHI Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | — | — | — |
| — | 7 | ROMAN TURBO K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick ARIEL (19.4%) finished 8th — the winner BLUE MARLIN was rated #2.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ARIEL | 19.4% | 5.16 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | BLUE MARLIN | 17.4% | 5.74 | 1 |
| 3 | 8 | KASI FARASI | 12.5% | 7.98 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | JUNE PLANET | 10.1% | 9.93 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | SO AWESOME | 9.8% | 10.16 | 9 |
| 6 | 12 | SPEEDSTAR | 9.4% | 10.66 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | GOLDEN LINK | 6.8% | 14.76 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | FORERUNNER | 6.5% | 15.45 | 7 |
| 9 | 9 | DIVINE ERA | 5.8% | 17.36 | 2 |
| 10 | 4 | ALL ARE MINE | 2.4% | 41.86 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 7
Race 9 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1400m
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