Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 9
Class 3
GOOD TO YIELDING
1200m
Course A
8 runners
Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. SUPREME LUCKY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with COMPASSION SPIRIT second and BEAUTY CRESCENT third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPREME LUCKY H/TT 1.09.58 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 7 | 2.2 | SH |
| 2 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 6 | 25.0 | SH |
| 3 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT B1/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 1 | 29.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | CALL ME DANDY CP/XB M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 3 | 3.6 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SOLID SHALAA K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 5 | 9.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | PULSAR STRIDER H Bowman · T P Yung | H Bowman | T P Yung | 8 | 8.6 | 7-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | ACE ONE B/SR/XB2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 5.7 | 10-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | AMAZING ACE B1 C L Chau · P C Ng | C L Chau | P C Ng | 4 | 40.0 | 11 |
| — | 3 | SINBA B Avdulla · J Richards | B Avdulla | J Richards | — | — | — |
| — | 8 | DESERT STAR M F Poon · D A Hayes | M F Poon | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick SUPREME LUCKY (29.3%) won this race.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | SUPREME LUCKY | 29.3% | 3.41 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | CALL ME DANDY | 27.7% | 3.61 | 4 |
| 3 | 5 | PULSAR STRIDER | 12.8% | 7.82 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | ACE ONE | 12.3% | 8.12 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | SOLID SHALAA | 9.5% | 10.55 | 5 |
| 6 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 4.0% | 25.20 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | BEAUTY CRESCENT | 3.1% | 31.98 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | AMAZING ACE | 1.3% | 79.19 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
← Race 8
Race 10 →
This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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