Sha Tin · 2023-09-10
Race 2
Class 4
YIELDING
1200m
Course A
9 runners
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-10 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on YIELDING going. SUPER WINNER, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by 2-1/4, with M UNICORN second and EVER BLESSING third. The 2.5 favourite FORTUNE WARRIOR finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SUPER WINNER TT 1.09.67 Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 7 | 4.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | M UNICORN H/P/TT H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 2 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | EVER BLESSING CP B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 1 | 3.6 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | MORE RICE B-/V1 K Teetan · T P Yung | K Teetan | T P Yung | 4 | 11.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | MR MAJESTIC CP/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 16.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | FAST BUCK P A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 7 | AUGUST MOON V/TT K C Leung · J Richards | K C Leung | J Richards | 9 | 34.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | NINJA DERBY CP1 L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 6 | 99.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | FORTUNE WARRIOR XB-/CP Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 3 | 2.5 | 10-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
The model's top pick M UNICORN (20.5%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER WINNER was rated #3.
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | M UNICORN | 20.5% | 4.87 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | FORTUNE WARRIOR | 19.1% | 5.24 | 9 |
| 3 | 6 | SUPER WINNER | 17.4% | 5.74 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | MORE RICE | 15.8% | 6.31 | 4 |
| 5 | 8 | MR MAJESTIC | 10.9% | 9.20 | 5 |
| 6 | 3 | FAST BUCK | 6.2% | 16.10 | 6 |
| 7 | 5 | EVER BLESSING | 4.9% | 20.58 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | AUGUST MOON | 3.9% | 25.53 | 7 |
| 9 | 1 | NINJA DERBY | 1.3% | 78.36 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
No dividends recorded for this race.
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This meeting
Draw bias · Sha Tin 1200m
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