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Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 05:03

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C 10 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER LEGENDS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with KAHOLO ANGEL second and RUBYLOT third. The 2.1 favourite RUBYLOT finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SUPER LEGENDS TT1 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 17.0 N
2 1 KAHOLO ANGEL B-/H-/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 5.7 N
3 4 RUBYLOT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 1 2.1 N
4 10 TELECOM DRAGON TT1 C L Chau · C H Yip 10 83.0 N
5 7 JOYFUL PROSPERITY A Atzeni · C W Chang 9 14.0 1-1/2
6 2 SUPER BONUS B Z Purton · P C Ng 4 3.4 2-3/4
7 9 SONIC BOOM XB1/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 36.0 4
8 3 HINOKAMI KAGURA XB1/TT1 K Teetan · J Richards 7 13.0 7-1/4
9 6 THE CONCENTRATION K De Melo · P F Yiu 3 61.0 8-1/2
10 8 GREAT DAYS B Y L Chung · P C Ng 6 87.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER LEGENDS2. KAHOLO ANGEL+0.05L3. RUBYLOT+0.05L4. TELECOM DRAGON+0.05L5. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+1.5L6. SUPER BONUS+2.75L7. SONIC BOOM+4L8. HINOKAMI KAGURA+7.25L9. THE CONCENTRATION+8.5L10. GREAT DAYS+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SUPER BONUS (31.1%) finished 6th — the winner SUPER LEGENDS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 SUPER BONUS 31.1% 3.21 6
2 1 KAHOLO ANGEL 22.7% 4.41 2
3 3 HINOKAMI KAGURA 9.8% 10.20 8
4 5 SUPER LEGENDS 8.0% 12.43 1
5 4 RUBYLOT 7.7% 13.01 3
6 6 THE CONCENTRATION 6.5% 15.49 9
7 7 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 5.9% 17.00 5
8 9 SONIC BOOM 5.9% 17.09 7
9 8 GREAT DAYS 1.6% 61.11 10
10 10 TELECOM DRAGON 0.9% 116.99 4
SUPER BONUSKAHOLO ANGELHINOKAMI KAGURASUPER LEGENDS — wonRUBYLOTTHE CONCENTRATIONJOYFUL PROSPERITYSONIC BOOMGREAT DAYSTELECOM DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 173.5

PLACE

1 16

4 12

5 45

QUINELLA

1,5 454

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 24.5

1,5 119.5

4,5 75

FORECAST

5,1 1,047

TIERCE

5,1,4 3,538

TRIO

1,4,5 325

FIRST 4

1,4,5,10 2,046

QUARTET

5,1,4,10 71,862