Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 06:02
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Group 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HEALTHY HAPPY, ridden by A Badel and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with CIRCUIT STELLAR second and THE GOLDEN SCENERY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite CIRCUIT STELLAR finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HEALTHY HAPPY Wire to wire V/TT 1.21.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 1 | 9.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | CIRCUIT STELLAR H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 5 | 2.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz | A Atzeni | A S Cruz | 4 | 4.4 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | BEAUTY JOY H/TT H Bowman · A S Cruz | H Bowman | A S Cruz | 3 | 6.8 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | STRAIGHT ARRON Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 6.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 5 | ENCOUNTERED TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 6 | 4.4 | 10-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | STRAIGHT ARRON | 32.8% | 3.05 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | CIRCUIT STELLAR | 30.6% | 3.27 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY JOY | 15.6% | 6.40 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | ENCOUNTERED | 12.1% | 8.26 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | THE GOLDEN SCENERY | 4.9% | 20.32 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | HEALTHY HAPPY | 3.9% | 25.43 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 93
PLACE
2 33.5
4 18.5
QUINELLA
2,4 125.5
FORECAST
2,4 260
TIERCE
2,4,6 1,021
TRIO
2,4,6 153
FIRST 4
1,2,4,6 77
QUARTET
2,4,6,1 1,982
2ND DOUBLE
6/2 319
6/4 32.5