Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 14:31
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BEAR SLAM Closed strongly XB 1.40.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 5 | 8.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | MISSION BRAVO Led early H-/V-/B2/TT- L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 1 | 3.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | BOOM ALLIANCE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 10 | 24.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 3 | 7.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly B/XB M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 7 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | FAST BUCK P H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 8.1 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 11 | 3.1 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | ALL ARE MINE H1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 9 | 41.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | DARCI LEGEND Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 8 | 19.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SPECIAL HEDGE B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 55.0 | 20 |
| 11 | 0 | GOLD STERLING P1/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 32.0 | 23 |
| — | 0 | EL VALIENTE M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. BEAR SLAM, ridden by A Atzeni and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-1/2, with MISSION BRAVO second and BOOM ALLIANCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite BILLIONAIRE SECRET finished 7th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | BILLIONAIRE SECRET | 30.7% | 3.25 | 7 |
| 2 | 0 | FAST BUCK | 21.5% | 4.64 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | MISSION BRAVO | 17.3% | 5.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 0 | DARCI LEGEND | 6.7% | 14.88 | 9 |
| 5 | 0 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 5.7% | 17.47 | 5 |
| 6 | 0 | RELIABLE PROFIT | 5.3% | 18.97 | 4 |
| 7 | 0 | BOOM ALLIANCE | 4.6% | 21.97 | 3 |
| 8 | 0 | ALL ARE MINE | 3.7% | 27.00 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | BEAR SLAM | 2.0% | 49.41 | 1 |
| 10 | 0 | GOLD STERLING | 1.9% | 53.42 | 11 |
| 11 | 0 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 0.6% | 180.94 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 89
PLACE
6 38
7 18.5
10 45
QUINELLA
6,7 263
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 91.5
6,10 316
7,10 143.5
FORECAST
6,7 582
TIERCE
6,7,10 10,114
TRIO
6,7,10 1,643
FIRST 4
6,7,8,10 1,796
QUARTET
6,7,10,8 45,963
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,6/6,7,10 27,007
3RD DOUBLE
2/6 624
2/7 43.5