Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 07:06
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ALWAYS FLUKE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by SH, with COMMANDING MISSILE second and ISLAND GOLDEN third. Victory came as the 4.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | ALWAYS FLUKE H/CP1 1.09.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 4.6 | SH |
| 2 | 8 | COMMANDING MISSILE B/H Y L Chung · C W Chang | Y L Chung | C W Chang | 1 | 6.1 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | ISLAND GOLDEN TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 3 | 6.8 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 4 | LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 8 | 24.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | FUN TOGETHER CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 6 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 12 | CHAMPION INSTINCT B A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 9.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | LUCKY FUN B1/TT2 K C Leung · P C Ng | K C Leung | P C Ng | 4 | 5.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 7 | SPEEDY FORTUNE M F Poon · J Size | M F Poon | J Size | 5 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | GO HERO K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 10 | 12.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | ATOMIC BEAUTY TT A Hamelin · A S Cruz | A Hamelin | A S Cruz | 11 | 61.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | AFFIRM TT1 A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 12 | 8.4 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | AUGUST MOON V/TT M Chadwick · J Richards | M Chadwick | J Richards | 2 | 38.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 17.8% | 5.60 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | ALWAYS FLUKE | 12.9% | 7.74 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | SPEEDY FORTUNE | 11.5% | 8.73 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | GO HERO | 9.1% | 11.01 | 9 |
| 5 | 5 | AFFIRM | 8.5% | 11.73 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | ISLAND GOLDEN | 8.1% | 12.28 | 3 |
| 7 | 12 | CHAMPION INSTINCT | 7.4% | 13.59 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | LUCKY FUN | 6.3% | 15.97 | 7 |
| 9 | 10 | AUGUST MOON | 5.7% | 17.50 | 12 |
| 10 | 4 | LUCKY QUALITY | 5.6% | 17.73 | 4 |
| 11 | 2 | FUN TOGETHER | 5.1% | 19.76 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | ATOMIC BEAUTY | 2.0% | 50.01 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 46
PLACE
1 25.5
8 21.5
9 18.5
QUINELLA
8,9 206
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 63.5
1,9 70.5
8,9 78
FORECAST
9,8 335
TIERCE
9,8,1 1,465
TRIO
1,8,9 318
FIRST 4
1,4,8,9 901
QUARTET
9,8,1,4 14,051
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
2/6/8 1,776
2/6/9 5,336
4TH DOUBLE
6/8 171
6/9 676.5