Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 05:34
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. M M NEBULA, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P C Ng, won by SH, with SUN OF MAKFI second and STARSHIP EIGHTY third. The winner led throughout. The 3.4 favourite HIGH CLOUD finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | M M NEBULA Wire to wire CP/TT 1.40.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 5 | 5.0 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 11 | 8.6 | SH |
| 3 | 9 | STARSHIP EIGHTY B/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 3 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 1 | HIGH CLOUD Closed strongly V/XB/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte | H Bowman | D J Whyte | 6 | 3.4 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | DAILY BEAUTY Closed strongly B K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 9 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON Closed strongly B-/PC2/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 7 | 9.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | GREEN LASER B/TT A Atzeni · W Y So | A Atzeni | W Y So | 8 | 17.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | STAR OF GLORY B M F Poon · C W Chang | M F Poon | C W Chang | 4 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | CHIRON CP/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 2 | 7.9 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | CALL ME TEDDY TT B Avdulla · C W Chang | B Avdulla | C W Chang | 10 | 17.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 11 | 11 | FLYING GALLOP B-/XB/P1/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 1 | 43.0 | 17-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SUN OF MAKFI | 15.7% | 6.38 | 2 |
| 2 | 6 | M M NEBULA | 13.2% | 7.56 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | STARSHIP EIGHTY | 12.5% | 7.99 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | HIGH CLOUD | 12.3% | 8.15 | 4 |
| 5 | 3 | CHIRON | 12.0% | 8.36 | 9 |
| 6 | 4 | COLOURFUL BARON | 8.2% | 12.13 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | DAILY BEAUTY | 7.7% | 12.99 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | STAR OF GLORY | 6.7% | 14.96 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | GREEN LASER | 4.8% | 21.02 | 7 |
| 10 | 2 | CALL ME TEDDY | 3.9% | 25.62 | 10 |
| 11 | 11 | FLYING GALLOP | 3.1% | 32.71 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 50.5
PLACE
5 28.5
6 20
9 31
QUINELLA
5,6 264
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 86.5
5,9 139
6,9 99
FORECAST
6,5 460
TIERCE
6,5,9 5,249
TRIO
5,6,9 898
FIRST 4
1,5,6,9 624
QUARTET
6,5,9,1 19,953
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/5 313.5
5/6 1,033
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/5,6,9 60,167