Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 09:54
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. PACKING TREADMILL, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by HD, with FLYING ACE second and GOKO WIN third. The 3.8 favourite NORDIC DRAGON finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | PACKING TREADMILL SR 1.09.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 7 | 4.7 | HD |
| 2 | 6 | FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 4.0 | HD |
| 3 | 12 | GOKO WIN B A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 8 | 28.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | BEAUTY CHARGE H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 7.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | ALACRITY XB/B1/TT C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 9 | 16.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | NORDIC DRAGON TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 11 | 3.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | BUNDLE OF CHARM K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 10 | 20.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 11 | POWER KOEPP E M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 3 | 47.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 7 | IMA SINGLE MAN H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 2 | 54.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | COMPUTER PATCH V/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 9.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | EASON V/TT A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 6 | 48.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 12 | 1 | MASTER EIGHT TT K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 25.0 | 7-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NORDIC DRAGON | 23.8% | 4.20 | 6 |
| 2 | 6 | FLYING ACE | 20.5% | 4.87 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | PACKING TREADMILL | 9.3% | 10.76 | 1 |
| 4 | 10 | BUNDLE OF CHARM | 8.3% | 12.07 | 7 |
| 5 | 4 | BEAUTY CHARGE | 7.9% | 12.67 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | ALACRITY | 7.2% | 13.93 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | EASON | 6.6% | 15.09 | 11 |
| 8 | 12 | GOKO WIN | 4.2% | 23.68 | 3 |
| 9 | 8 | COMPUTER PATCH | 3.5% | 28.89 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | MASTER EIGHT | 3.4% | 29.61 | 12 |
| 11 | 11 | POWER KOEPP | 3.2% | 31.69 | 8 |
| 12 | 7 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 2.2% | 45.36 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 47
PLACE
3 17.5
6 15.5
12 62.5
QUINELLA
3,6 98.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,6 39
3,12 169.5
6,12 150
FORECAST
3,6 237
TIERCE
3,6,12 2,869
TRIO
3,6,12 707
FIRST 4
3,4,6,12 885
QUARTET
3,6,12,4 16,855
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
1,6/5/3 539
1,6/5/6 110
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
5,8,10/3,6,12 24,718
9TH DOUBLE
5/3 288
5/6 60
SIX UP
8,9/10,13/3,9/1,5,6/5,8/3,6 1,538
9/13/9/1,6/5/3 31,084
2 [L Hewitson] —
9 [K W Lui] —