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Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 07:42

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPARKLING KNIGHT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with COTTON FINGERS second and METRO WARRIOR third. The 5.7 favourite RUN RUN COOL finished 11th.

Result

Official · 0.56.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 SPARKLING KNIGHT 0.56.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip 6 9.9 N
2 10 COTTON FINGERS TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So 4 53.0 N
3 9 METRO WARRIOR B A Atzeni · D A Hayes 5 8.1 1-3/4
4 14 SHINING FORTUNE B/XB K Teetan · J Size 7 67.0 2
5 3 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bentley · C Fownes 8 10.0 2-1/4
6 6 SINBA CP/TT L Ferraris · J Richards 10 29.0 2-1/2
7 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 9 10.0 3-1/4
8 5 FLYING HIGH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 2 26.0 4
9 7 KA YING SPIRIT B/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 1 12.0 4
10 8 CHEVAL VALIANT B/H/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 6.4 4-1/4
11 4 RUN RUN COOL PC Z Purton · F C Lor 11 5.7 6-1/2
12 11 AMAZING ROCKY C L Chau · T P Yung 12 22.0 6-3/4
13 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR B Y L Chung · P F Yiu 13 6.5 8-1/2
14 12 HAPPY MISSION H-/B1/XB1/TT K C Leung · M Newnham 14 12.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING KNIGHT2. COTTON FINGERS+0.05L3. METRO WARRIOR+1.75L4. SHINING FORTUNE+2L5. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+2.25L6. SINBA+2.5L7. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+3.25L8. FLYING HIGH+4L9. KA YING SPIRIT+4L10. CHEVAL VALIANT+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RUN RUN COOL (17.0%) finished 11th — the winner SPARKLING KNIGHT was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 RUN RUN COOL 17.0% 5.88 11
2 7 KA YING SPIRIT 16.2% 6.19 9
3 8 CHEVAL VALIANT 10.1% 9.90 10
4 13 SPARKLING KNIGHT 8.7% 11.47 1
5 1 PLEASANT ENDEAVOR 8.0% 12.49 13
6 5 FLYING HIGH 6.9% 14.53 8
7 9 METRO WARRIOR 6.7% 14.98 3
8 14 SHINING FORTUNE 5.7% 17.59 4
9 6 SINBA 4.5% 22.40 6
10 12 HAPPY MISSION 3.8% 26.06 14
11 11 AMAZING ROCKY 3.5% 28.47 12
12 2 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 3.3% 30.02 7
13 10 COTTON FINGERS 2.9% 34.27 2
14 3 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 2.7% 37.19 5
RUN RUN COOLKA YING SPIRITCHEVAL VALIANTSPARKLING KNIGHT — wonPLEASANT ENDEAVORFLYING HIGHMETRO WARRIORSHINING FORTUNESINBAHAPPY MISSIONAMAZING ROCKYCALIFORNIA DEEPLYCOTTON FINGERSEXPLOSIVE WITNESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 99

PLACE

9 22.5

10 118

13 35

QUINELLA

10,13 2,850.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,10 629.5

9,13 138.5

10,13 868.5

FORECAST

13,10 5,473

TIERCE

13,10,9 41,994

TRIO

9,10,13 7,494

FIRST 4

9,10,13,14 63,008

QUARTET

13,10,9,14 1,151,099

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,9/9,10,13 463,450

5TH DOUBLE

9/10 263

9/13 428

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

6,7,10/1,8,9/Any Combination 12,271