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Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 16:43

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.75
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly TT 1.22.75 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 6 1.6 HD
2 0 LOST CHILD Closed strongly B- L Hewitson · C W Chang 5 8.9 HD
3 0 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 7 12.0 1-1/2
4 0 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly B-/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 1 13.0 1-1/2
5 0 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly CP-/B1 L Ferraris · P C Ng 4 81.0 1-3/4
6 0 STRATHPEFFER B K Teetan · D J Whyte 8 14.0 2-1/4
7 0 PO ON WAY Closed strongly CP/H M L Yeung · K H Ting 13 28.0 3
8 0 RED HARE KING TT A Badel · A S Cruz 9 6.8 3-1/2
9 0 FASTPASS Led early B/SR/XB H T Mo · K W Lui 2 65.0 5
10 0 CASA COSMO Closed strongly CP/XB/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 12 52.0 5-1/4
11 0 E GLORY C L Chau · K L Man 10 134.0 11-1/4
12 0 CAN'T GO WONG V/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 11 43.0 11-3/4
13 0 SEIZE THE DREAM M F Poon · Y S Tsui 3 183.0 22
— 0 CIRCUIT NINE M Chadwick · W K Mo — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GREEN N WHITE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with LOST CHILD second and STRONGEST BOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREEN N WHITE—2. LOST CHILD+0.2L3. STRONGEST BOY+1.5L4. NOBLE PURSUIT+1.5L5. AESTHETICISM+1.75L6. STRATHPEFFER+2.25L7. PO ON WAY+3L8. RED HARE KING+3.5L9. FASTPASS+5L10. CASA COSMO+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GREEN N WHITE (43.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GREEN N WHITE 43.6% 2.29 1
2 0 NOBLE PURSUIT 9.9% 10.12 4
3 0 STRATHPEFFER 9.7% 10.36 6
4 0 STRONGEST BOY 7.4% 13.48 3
5 0 LOST CHILD 7.2% 13.87 2
6 0 RED HARE KING 5.6% 17.91 8
7 0 PO ON WAY 3.6% 28.05 7
8 0 CASA COSMO 3.5% 28.51 10
9 0 CAN'T GO WONG 3.4% 29.00 12
10 0 AESTHETICISM 3.3% 29.89 5
11 0 FASTPASS 1.2% 81.43 9
12 0 SEIZE THE DREAM 0.8% 124.26 13
13 0 E GLORY 0.8% 130.85 11
GREEN N WHITE — wonNOBLE PURSUITSTRATHPEFFERSTRONGEST BOYLOST CHILDRED HARE KINGPO ON WAYCASA COSMOCAN'T GO WONGAESTHETICISMFASTPASSSEIZE THE DREAME GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 16.5

PLACE

1 11

5 22

12 24.5

QUINELLA

1,5 55

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 26.5

1,12 30.5

5,12 87

FORECAST

1,5 75

TIERCE

1,5,12 347

TRIO

1,5,12 132

FIRST 4

1,5,7,12 203

QUARTET

1,5,12,7 2,043

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,9/5,12>1,6 1,510

7TH DOUBLE

9/1,6 42.5

9/5 41