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Sha Tin · 2023-09-24 · 08:12

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-09-24 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. YELLOWFIN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with TAJ DRAGON second and BRAVE DREAMS third. The winner led throughout. The 2.1 favourite TAJ DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.21
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 YELLOWFIN Wire to wire XB 1.21.21 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 5 2.4 1/2
2 3 TAJ DRAGON Closed strongly Z Purton · P C Ng 2 2.1 1/2
3 2 BRAVE DREAMS Closed strongly TT H Bowman · A S Cruz 10 22.0 2-1/4
4 7 SHOW RESPECT Closed strongly SR/XB/CP1/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 7 46.0 3-3/4
5 5 MARADO B C Y Ho · W Y So 6 29.0 4
6 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR E C W Wong · C Fownes 1 15.0 4-3/4
7 10 SOLID SHALAA K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 17.0 6-1/2
8 8 HARRY'S HERO Closed strongly XB1/TT- K De Melo · P F Yiu 9 137.0 7
9 4 BEAUTY MISSILE B-/V1 M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 14.0 9-1/4
10 6 TOURBILLON PRINCE TT A Badel · T P Yung 8 62.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YELLOWFIN2. TAJ DRAGON+0.5L3. BRAVE DREAMS+2.25L4. SHOW RESPECT+3.75L5. MARADO+4L6. FLAGSHIP WARRIOR+4.75L7. SOLID SHALAA+6.5L8. HARRY'S HERO+7L9. BEAUTY MISSILE+9.25L10. TOURBILLON PRINCE+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick TAJ DRAGON (34.0%) finished 2nd — the winner YELLOWFIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TAJ DRAGON 34.0% 2.94 2
2 9 YELLOWFIN 23.6% 4.24 1
3 4 BEAUTY MISSILE 13.0% 7.69 9
4 2 BRAVE DREAMS 8.3% 12.01 3
5 1 FLAGSHIP WARRIOR 6.5% 15.28 6
6 5 MARADO 5.3% 18.88 5
7 10 SOLID SHALAA 5.0% 19.89 7
8 7 SHOW RESPECT 2.7% 37.63 4
9 6 TOURBILLON PRINCE 1.1% 88.58 10
10 8 HARRY'S HERO 0.4% 249.77 8
TAJ DRAGONYELLOWFIN — wonBEAUTY MISSILEBRAVE DREAMSFLAGSHIP WARRIORMARADOSOLID SHALAASHOW RESPECTTOURBILLON PRINCEHARRY'S HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 24

PLACE

2 36

3 11

9 11.5

QUINELLA

3,9 29

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 56.5

2,9 46

3,9 14.5

FORECAST

9,3 49

TIERCE

9,3,2 378

TRIO

2,3,9 96

FIRST 4

2,3,7,9 475

QUARTET

9,3,2,7 4,514

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

13/3 57

13/9 281.5