Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 09:56
Race 10
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BLUE MARLIN, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1-1/2, with OUTGATE second and LET'S DO IT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H 1.21.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 2 | 2.9 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 4 | OUTGATE Led early H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 7.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | LET'S DO IT Closed strongly CP K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | GOLDEN ARTIE H/XB A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 9 | COMET SPLENDIDO Closed strongly TT L Ferraris · C S Shum | L Ferraris | C S Shum | 11 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | BEAUTY FIT Closed strongly E/P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 3 | 28.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | STORM LEGEND Closed strongly L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 6 | 39.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 8 | 8.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 1 | MAJESTIC COLOUR B-/V2 H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 5 | 8.1 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | LUCKY GOLD B L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 10 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | HYPER DRAGON BALL TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 12 | 9.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 10 | I CAN H1 K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 9 | 39.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | HYPER DRAGON BALL | 19.2% | 5.22 | 11 |
| 2 | 8 | BLUE MARLIN | 17.8% | 5.63 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | MAJESTIC COLOUR | 12.9% | 7.75 | 9 |
| 4 | 11 | LET'S DO IT | 9.4% | 10.65 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 | STORM LEGEND | 7.4% | 13.51 | 7 |
| 6 | 6 | GOLDEN ARTIE | 6.8% | 14.73 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | LUCKY GOLD | 6.5% | 15.33 | 10 |
| 8 | 7 | CIRCUIT MIGHTY | 6.1% | 16.28 | 8 |
| 9 | 4 | OUTGATE | 5.6% | 18.00 | 2 |
| 10 | 9 | COMET SPLENDIDO | 4.4% | 22.92 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | BEAUTY FIT | 2.8% | 35.55 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | I CAN | 1.2% | 83.95 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 29.5
PLACE
4 23.5
8 14.5
11 26.5
QUINELLA
4,8 117.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 50
4,11 139
8,11 60.5
FORECAST
8,4 229
TIERCE
8,4,11 1,495
TRIO
4,8,11 447
FIRST 4
4,6,8,11 792
QUARTET
8,4,11,6 11,124
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
2/1/4 123
2/1/8 237
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
1,4,5/4,8,11 97,708
9TH DOUBLE
1/4 53
1/8 126.5
SIX UP
1,8/7,12/1,2/2,4/1,4/4,8 3,342
8/7/1/2/1/8 62,460
1 [K W Lui] —
3 [C Y Ho] —