Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 09:20

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. KARMA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1, with ARIEL second and DIVINE ERA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite EVER BLESSING finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.22.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 10 5.9 1
2 4 ARIEL Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 16.0 1
3 5 DIVINE ERA Closed strongly H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 7.8 1-1/2
4 2 BEATO Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 14 22.0 1-1/2
5 6 GOLDEN BULL Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 13 7.7 1-1/2
6 3 PERFETTO Closed strongly B-/V1 Z Purton · D J Hall 9 6.8 3-1/4
7 9 EVER BLESSING CP B Avdulla · P F Yiu 3 5.0 3-1/4
8 8 TALENTS SUPREMO XB-/TT1 A Hamelin · W K Mo 2 14.0 3-3/4
9 10 SO AWESOME B/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 6 35.0 4-1/4
10 14 BAEBAE TSOI Led early CP-/TT M F Poon · C H Yip 7 24.0 4-3/4
11 11 CAPTAIN HURRICANE Closed strongly H-/V-/TT1 M Chadwick · M Newnham 4 39.0 5
12 7 HOLY LAKE Closed strongly XB H Bentley · K W Lui 12 16.0 5-1/2
13 12 LUCKY PLANET SR L Hewitson · D J Whyte 5 10.0 6-1/2
14 13 HAPPIHOOD B K De Melo · P C Ng 1 89.0 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARMA2. ARIEL+1L3. DIVINE ERA+1.5L4. BEATO+1.5L5. GOLDEN BULL+1.5L6. PERFETTO+3.25L7. EVER BLESSING+3.25L8. TALENTS SUPREMO+3.75L9. SO AWESOME+4.25L10. BAEBAE TSOI+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick PERFETTO (23.5%) finished 6th — the winner KARMA was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 PERFETTO 23.5% 4.25 6
2 6 GOLDEN BULL 14.6% 6.85 5
3 4 ARIEL 10.4% 9.64 2
4 1 KARMA 6.9% 14.41 1
5 12 LUCKY PLANET 6.7% 15.00 13
6 9 EVER BLESSING 6.5% 15.27 7
7 5 DIVINE ERA 6.5% 15.45 3
8 8 TALENTS SUPREMO 6.1% 16.50 8
9 2 BEATO 5.4% 18.38 4
10 7 HOLY LAKE 4.7% 21.11 12
11 14 BAEBAE TSOI 3.6% 27.98 10
12 10 SO AWESOME 3.1% 32.21 9
13 13 HAPPIHOOD 1.2% 86.85 14
14 11 CAPTAIN HURRICANE 0.8% 122.60 11
PERFETTOGOLDEN BULLARIELKARMA — wonLUCKY PLANETEVER BLESSINGDIVINE ERATALENTS SUPREMOBEATOHOLY LAKEBAEBAE TSOISO AWESOMEHAPPIHOODCAPTAIN HURRICANE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 59

PLACE

1 20.5

4 47

5 27

QUINELLA

1,4 618

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 211.5

1,5 80

4,5 227.5

FORECAST

1,4 1,023

TIERCE

1,4,5 5,093

TRIO

1,4,5 1,064

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 3,986

QUARTET

1,4,5,2 71,937

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

2/1 95

2/4 61