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Sha Tin · 2023-10-01 · 06:04

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-10-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GALAXY PATCH, ridden by K Teetan and trained by P C Ng, won by N, with NORTHERN BEACHES second and CALL ME DANDY third. The 2.2 favourite CALL ME DANDY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 GALAXY PATCH B1 1.09.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · P C Ng 1 6.3 N
2 9 NORTHERN BEACHES M Chadwick · W Y So 8 9.7 N
3 5 CALL ME DANDY CP/XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 2.2 1-1/2
4 2 ARMOUR EAGLE B/XB/TT H Bentley · J Richards 2 7.2 2-1/2
5 8 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz 7 11.0 3-1/2
6 10 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP CP M F Poon · P F Yiu 5 80.0 5-1/2
7 6 NABOO LEGEND Z Purton · D A Hayes 10 12.0 6
8 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT B/TT A Atzeni · A S Cruz 9 9.2 6-3/4
9 4 WINDICATOR FAMILY L Ferraris · D J Hall 6 55.0 9-1/4
10 3 SAKEWIN CP Y L Chung · F C Lor 4 17.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALAXY PATCH2. NORTHERN BEACHES+0.05L3. CALL ME DANDY+1.5L4. ARMOUR EAGLE+2.5L5. CALIFORNIA VANES+3.5L6. JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP+5.5L7. NABOO LEGEND+6L8. BEAUTY CRESCENT+6.75L9. WINDICATOR FAMILY+9.25L10. SAKEWIN+17.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CALL ME DANDY (35.2%) finished 3rd — the winner GALAXY PATCH was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 CALL ME DANDY 35.2% 2.84 3
2 2 ARMOUR EAGLE 12.9% 7.75 4
3 8 CALIFORNIA VANES 12.9% 7.78 5
4 6 NABOO LEGEND 8.5% 11.81 7
5 7 GALAXY PATCH 6.3% 15.91 1
6 9 NORTHERN BEACHES 6.1% 16.43 2
7 1 BEAUTY CRESCENT 5.6% 17.80 8
8 4 WINDICATOR FAMILY 5.1% 19.50 9
9 3 SAKEWIN 4.1% 24.16 10
10 10 JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP 3.3% 30.15 6
CALL ME DANDYARMOUR EAGLECALIFORNIA VANESNABOO LEGENDGALAXY PATCH — wonNORTHERN BEACHESBEAUTY CRESCENTWINDICATOR FAMILYSAKEWINJOYFUL FRIENDSHIP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 63

PLACE

5 11.5

7 20

9 24

QUINELLA

7,9 330.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,7 31

5,9 38.5

7,9 85

FORECAST

7,9 584

TIERCE

7,9,5 1,549

TRIO

5,7,9 185

FIRST 4

2,5,7,9 234

QUARTET

7,9,5,2 6,445

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

7/7 1,022

7/9 341